21世纪末CORDEX东亚第二阶段区域内白天与夜间并发热浪的多GCM与多RCM链研究
Concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in the late 21st century over the CORDEX-East Asia phase 2 domain using multi-GCM and multi-RCM chains
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究利用多GCM-RCM链预估东亚并发昼夜热浪，发现高排放情景下其频率、强度和持续时间大幅增加，将带来前所未有的热应激。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
当白天和夜间热浪并发（CDNHWs）发生时，极端高温对人类健康的不利影响比白天或夜间热浪单独发生时更为严重，因为从热暴露中恢复的时间减少。本研究预估了RCP2.6、RCP8.5、SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下东亚地区CDNHWs的未来变化。日最高和最低气温由参与CORDEX东亚第二阶段的12个GCM-RCM链产生的25公里分辨率3小时气温数据推导而来。在历史时期（1981-2005年），4月至9月东亚平均CDNHW发生天数和发生频率分别为10.9天和0.9%。到2071-2100年，在RCP2.6、RCP8.5、SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下，它们分别增加到3周和3.7%、2个月和20.5%、2个月和15.6%、3个月和45.7%。CDNHW的强度和空间范围也大幅增加。持续时间超过10天的CDNHW比例从历史时期的0.2%增加到RCP2.6、RCP8.5、SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5情景下的1.2%、7.2%、6.1%和17.3%。预计中南半岛、中国东部和西部以及印度的CDNHW发生频率和强度将出现特别大的增长。在持续高温室气体排放下，随着CDNHWs在21世纪末变得显著更加频繁和强烈，东亚预计将经历前所未有的热应激。
英文摘要
The adverse impacts of extreme heat on human health are greater when concurrent daytime and nighttime heatwaves (CDNHWs) occur than when daytime or nighttime heatwaves occur individually, due to reduced recovery time from heat exposure. This study projects future changes in CDNHWs across East Asia under RCP2.6, RCP8.5, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures are derived from 3-hourly temperatures at 25-km resolution produced by 12 GCM-RCM chains participating in CORDEX-East Asia Phase 2. During the historical period (1981-2005), the East Asian mean CDNHW occurrence period and rate from April to September are 10.9 days and 0.9 percent, respectively. By 2071-2100, they increase to 3 weeks and 3.7 percent under RCP2.6, 2 months and 20.5 percent under RCP8.5, 2 months and 15.6 percent under SSP1-2.6, and 3 months and 45.7 percent under SSP5-8.5. CDNHW intensity and spatial extent also increase substantially. The proportion of CDNHWs lasting more than 10 days increases from 0.2 percent historically to 1.2 percent, 7.2 percent, 6.1 percent, and 17.3 percent under RCP2.6, RCP8.5, SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Particularly large increases in CDNHW occurrence and intensity are projected over Indochina, East and West China, and India. Under continued high greenhouse gas emissions, East Asia is expected to experience unprecedented heat stress as CDNHWs become substantially more frequent and intense by the end of the 21st century.
发表机构
- Pusan National University（釜山国立大学）
- Kongju National University（公州国立大学）
- Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology（蔚山科学技术院）
- National Institute of Meteorological Sciences（国家气象科学研究所）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
