基于积雪模拟的数据驱动卫星观测雪崩活动预测
Data-driven Prediction of Satellite-observed Avalanche Activity from Snowpack Simulations
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究利用SNOWPACK模拟和Transformer模型预测SAR观测的雪崩活动，在区域尺度上达到r=0.803的相关性，表明积雪模拟能反映雪崩活动的广泛变化，但尚不具备业务预报能力。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
雪崩预报需要了解积雪状况和近期雪崩活动，但大面积山区的实地观测数据稀疏。我们探索了SNOWPACK模拟是否能够预测由合成孔径雷达（SAR）绘制的雪崩活动。我们汇编了挪威及瑞典部分地区的五个冬季的Sentinel-1雪崩探测数据，以及由数值天气预报在20 x 20公里网格上、不同海拔和预定坡度角驱动的SNOWPACK模拟。一个Transformer模型使用五天的SNOWPACK输出来预测第二天的SAR探测雪崩活动指数（SAR-AAI）。该指数对较大的碎屑赋予更高权重，将探测结果分散到可能的 occurrence 日期，并通过模拟的冲出距离面积进行归一化。模型在四个冬季上训练，并在一个验证冬季上评估。在完整的六天周期平均后，区域平均预测值与参考SAR-AAI的相关系数为r = 0.803。模型跟随了时间和空间上的广泛变化，但产生了更平滑的预测，并低估了最强活动。在20公里单元尺度上，经过相同的平均后，一致性较弱（r = 0.549）。这些结果来自单次训练运行，未在未接触的冬季上进行评估。卫星观测还包含漏检和误检以及不确定的时间。因此，这些结果并未确立业务预报技能，但表明区域SNOWPACK模拟包含有关卫星观测雪崩活动广泛变化的信息。
英文摘要
Avalanche forecasting requires knowledge of snowpack conditions and recent avalanche activity, but field observations are sparse across large mountain regions. We explore whether SNOWPACK simulations can predict avalanche activity mapped by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). We compiled five winters of Sentinel-1 avalanche detections across Norway and parts of Sweden, alongside SNOWPACK simulations forced by numerical weather predictions on a 20 x 20 km grid at different elevations and predefined slope angles. A transformer used five days of SNOWPACK outputs to predict the following day's SAR-detected Avalanche Activity Index (SAR-AAI). This index weights larger debris more heavily, spreads detections across possible occurrence dates and normalises by modelled runout area. The model was trained on four winters and evaluated on one validation winter. Regional mean predicted and reference SAR-AAI correlated at r = 0.803 after averaging over complete six-day periods. The model followed broad changes in time and space but produced smoother predictions and underestimated the strongest activity. Agreement at the 20 km cell scale was weaker (r = 0.549) after the same averaging. These results come from a single training run without evaluation on an untouched winter. Satellite observations also contain missed and false detections and uncertain timing. The results therefore do not establish operational forecast skill, but suggest that regional SNOWPACK simulations contain information about broad variations in satellite-observed avalanche activity.
发表机构
- NORCE Research（挪威研究中心）
- UiT The Arctic University of Norway（挪威北极圈大学）
- Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate（挪威水资源与能源局）
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