解决不等于结算，第二部分：Polymarket 上的协议终局性与已观测赎回
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part II: Protocol Finality and Observed Redemption on Polymarket
AI总结：
针对Polymarket，提出事件溯源框架区分预言机终局性、协议终局性与持有者实现，基于10.8万条件实证显示三者脱节，赎回事件需独立权益分母才能度量。
AI中文摘要：
预言机结果尚不是协议赔付，可赎回头寸尚不是持有者账户中的抵押品，赎回事件也不是经济权益的完整度量。本配套论文为Polymarket条件开发了一个事件溯源框架，涵盖从准备阶段到协议终局性及已观测持有者实现的整个过程。实证设计使用了从固定合约应用二进制接口（ABI）中导出的三个条件代币框架事件族：ConditionPreparation、ConditionResolution和PayoutRedemption。它将合约范围的获取宇宙与冻结的Polymarket适配器问题队列区分开来。精确桥接包含108,638个关联条件。其中，99,283个在固定快照（Polygon区块90,114,204，2026-07-12T17:11:41Z）时具有已观测的协议解析事件。在已解析的精确关联条件中，92,158个具有任意金额的已观测赎回，91,817个具有已观测的正赔付赎回；从首次协议解析起，条件特定的Kaplan-Meier中位数分别为182秒和200秒。精确关联的赔付分类包含53,847个规范(0,1)向量、45,024个规范(1,0)向量、410个五五开向量、两个其他有效向量，以及9,355个无已观测解析的条件。跨合约的预言机-适配器-协议排序被保守地报告：823个条件具有区间限定的终态生成，48个具有多个候选生成，91,638个在冻结证据中无兼容的终态生成，16,129个为右删失或无法评估。形式化结果表明，预言机终局性不能确定协议终局性，协议终局性不能确定持有者实现，且仅凭赎回事件不能确定已赎回权益的比例，除非有独立的余额一致权益分母。
英文摘要：
An Oracle result is not yet a protocol payout, a redeemable position is not yet collateral in a holder's account, and a redemption event is not a complete measure of economic entitlement. This companion paper develops an event-sourced framework for Polymarket conditions from preparation through protocol finality and observed holder realization. The empirical design uses three Conditional Tokens Framework event families derived from a pinned contract application binary interface (ABI): ConditionPreparation, ConditionResolution, and PayoutRedemption. It separates the contract-wide acquisition universe from the frozen Polymarket adapter-question cohort. The exact bridge contains 108,638 linked conditions. Of these, 99,283 have an observed protocol-resolution event by the fixed snapshot at Polygon block 90,114,204 (2026-07-12T17:11:41Z). Among resolved exact-linked conditions, 92,158 have an observed redemption of any amount and 91,817 have an observed positive-payout redemption; condition-specific Kaplan-Meier medians from first protocol resolution are 182 and 200 seconds respectively. The exact-linked payout taxonomy contains 53,847 canonical (0,1) vectors, 45,024 canonical (1,0) vectors, 410 fifty-fifty vectors, two other valid vectors, and 9,355 conditions with no observed resolution. Cross-contract Oracle-adapter-protocol ordering is reported conservatively: 823 conditions have an interval-qualified terminal generation, 48 have multiple candidate generations, 91,638 have no compatible terminal generation in the frozen evidence, and 16,129 are right-censored or otherwise unevaluable. The formal results show that Oracle finality does not identify protocol finality, protocol finality does not identify holder realization, and redemption events alone do not identify the fraction of entitlement redeemed without an independent balance-consistent entitlement denominator.
