解决不等于结算，第一部分：Polymarket 上的预言机裁决与语义治理
Resolution Is Not Settlement, Part I: Oracle Adjudication and Semantic Governance on Polymarket
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究以预言机请求代为裁决单位，重建 Polymarket 的预言机生命周期状态，区分解决与结算，揭示请求年龄与语义解决年龄的差异，并建立事件溯源账目以支持语义治理分析。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
预测市场的解决常常被简化为一个最终结果和一个时间戳。这种表示对于杠杆事件索赔而言是不充分的，因为规则版本、请求创建、提案、争议、重置、预言机最终性和适配器终结性是具有不同观察精度和资产负债表后果的不同状态。我们使用预言机请求代作为裁决单位，为 Polymarket 重建这些状态。总体数据冻结在 Polygon 区块 79,721,080，包含 185,550 个初始化的适配器-问题实例和 350,703 条解码的适配器日志。精确的请求者过滤提取产生 504,332 个解码的预言机生命周期事件：184,148 次请求创建、159,447 次提案、1,604 次争议和 159,133 次结算。账目结清为 182,671 个至少有一个请求的问题加上 1,477 个后继代。不可变的链上身份和已部署的请求语义提供了精确的链接；未完成的历史保持右删失。请求年龄并非语义解决年龄。请求到首次提案的中位时间在传统路由上为 182 秒，但在现代路由上为 176,388-744,151 秒；重置后的后继提案在中位数上于 300-2,909 秒内到达。这种描述性对比并不确立因果效率。精确的稳定 ID 元数据链接恢复了 185,550 个问题中的 104,032 个（56.07%），留下 81,518 个未匹配，且没有产生模糊的精确匹配。外部来源发布和合约可判定性时钟在总体范围内未被测量，且不被机制时间戳所替代。结果建立了预言机裁决、语义治理和适配器终结性的事件溯源账目。配套的第二部分重建了条件代币的支付记录和观察到的赎回，保持了裁决、协议结算和持有者实现之间的边界。
英文摘要
Prediction-market resolution is often reduced to a terminal outcome and one timestamp. That representation is inadequate for leveraged event claims because rule versioning, request creation, proposal, dispute, reset, Oracle finality, and adapter terminality are distinct states with different observation precision and balance-sheet consequences. We reconstruct those states for Polymarket using Oracle request generations as the unit of adjudication. The population is frozen at Polygon block 79,721,080 and contains 185,550 initialized adapter-question instances and 350,703 decoded adapter logs. Exact requester-filtered extraction yields 504,332 decoded Oracle lifecycle events: 184,148 request creations, 159,447 proposals, 1,604 disputes, and 159,133 settlements. The accounting closes as 182,671 questions with at least one request plus 1,477 successor generations. Immutable chain identity and deployed request semantics provide exact linkage; unfinished histories remain right-censored. Request age is not semantic resolution age. Median request-to-first-proposal time is 182 seconds on the legacy route but 176,388-744,151 seconds on modern routes; post-reset successor proposals arrive within 300-2,909 seconds at the median. This descriptive contrast does not establish causal efficiency. Exact stable-ID metadata linkage recovers 104,032 of 185,550 questions (56.07%), leaves 81,518 unmatched, and produces no ambiguous exact match. External-source publication and contractual-decidability clocks remain unmeasured population-wide and are not replaced by mechanism timestamps. The results establish an event-sourced account of Oracle adjudication, semantic governance, and adapter terminality. Companion Part II reconstructs Conditional Tokens payout recording and observed redemption, preserving the boundary between adjudication, protocol settlement, and holder realization.
