从想法到行动：跨越创业全生命周期的公共数据决策支持工具链
From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该工具链结合提案画像、市场检查与事件链分析，为创始人提供创立前后决策支持，实验显示其性能优于原始LLM基线，并识别出不同资本路径的适配性。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
创始人面临两个相互关联的决策：在创立公司之前是否追求某个想法，以及之后选择哪些运营行动和资本合作伙伴。我们提出了一种公共数据决策支持工具链，结合了有时间限制的提案画像、市场和护城河检查，以及带有可审计的投资者-公司事件链的确定性聚合，用于回顾性分析。创立前：（a）在对198家开发公司进行阈值选择后，冻结的流水线在独立的、行不相交的198家公司验证样本上达到F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655]。在合并的396行上，完整流水线得分为0.6301，而配对的原始LLM基线为0.2734。在另一个规模队列中对1,027个已完成案例进行事后分层，得到0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]；该运行尚未完成。一个377行的组成匹配检查得到0.6573。（b）AI推理研究识别出分销层企业作为一条可复制的独立盈利路径，但收入上限有限，而前沿模型所有权作为一条以极高资本成本换取资本市场上行空间的路径。创立后：（a）公共来源支持可审计的事件链分析。（b）在芯片公司研究中，持续的产品、客户和供应链进展与更好的观察结果相关；仅融资并不能确立运营进展。（c）融资占已确认的可见投资后行动的79%。证据初步倾向于具有收购经验的企业战略投资者适合以收购为导向的创始人，而融资主导的机构风投（观察到的控制事件较少）适合以独立为导向的创始人。研究结果是发展性和观察性的，并非因果保证或投资建议。我们发布了共享本体、带有来源信息的事件链数据、模式、基准和可执行技能，以供审计、重用和扩展。
英文摘要
Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.
发表机构
- Shanghai Xing Yun Zhi Li AI Institute（上海星云智立人工智能研究院）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
