发表机构
Universidade de São Paulo (USP); Universität Heidelberg（圣保罗大学; 海德堡大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究更新了银河系黑洞质量分布的贝叶斯分析，采用五种参数模型拟合42个系统，发现幂律最适合组合样本，高斯最适合低质量X射线双星样本，并给出低质量间隙的下限。
AI 中文摘要
自首次探测到引力波以来，河外星系黑洞的种群数量已显著扩大，并得到了更好的理解。在过去十年中，约有290个事件被确认涉及至少一个黑洞。相比之下，银河系黑洞种群的增长速度要慢得多，只有42个系统拥有质量估计，而绝大多数仍为候选体。在这项工作中，我们提出了自2011年以来对银河系黑洞质量分布进行贝叶斯分析的首次更新，此前该分析基于15个低质量X射线双星和5个高质量X射线双星的样本。我们的更新包括28个低质量X射线双星、6个高质量X射线双星、7个分离双星和1个孤立黑洞，这些也包含在我们引入的活目录\textit{CatNoir}中。我们应用贝叶斯框架，使用五种参数模型——高斯、双高斯、对数正态、幂律和衰减指数——并比较它们在拟合观测数据时的表现。此外，我们检查了从样本中移除依赖模型的系统的影响。我们的结果表明，幂律更好地描述了组合样本，而高斯模型则更受低质量X射线双星样本的青睐，紧随其后的是双高斯和对数正态。我们推导了首选模型的后验预测分布的1%分位数，以获取关于低质量间隙的信息。对于组合样本和低质量X射线双星样本，我们分别发现$M_{1\\%} > 4.06\\,M_\odot$和$M_{1\\%} > 2.56\\,M_\odot$（在90%置信区间内）。低质量X射线双星的结果允许存在一个稀疏填充的间隙，而不是完全空的间隙。
英文摘要
The population of extragalactic black holes has been significantly expanded and better understood since the first detection of gravitational waves. Over the past decade, approximately 290 events have been confirmed to involve at least one black hole. In contrast, the galactic black hole population has grown at a much slower pace, with only 42 systems possessing mass estimates, while the vast majority remain as candidates. In this work, we present the first update of a Bayesian analysis of the mass distribution of galactic black holes since 2011, previously based on a sample of 15 low-mass X-ray binaries and 5 high-mass X-ray binaries. Our update includes 28 low-mass X-ray binaries, 6 high-mass X-ray binaries, 7 detached binaries and 1 isolated black hole, also present in the living catalog \textit{CatNoir} which we introduce. We apply a Bayesian framework using five parametric models -- Gaussian, two-Gaussian, log-normal, power-law, and decaying exponential -- and compare their performance in fitting the observed data. Furthermore, we inspect the effect of removing model-dependent systems from the sample. Our results suggest that the power law better describes the Combined sample, while the Gaussian is preferred for the LMXB-only sample, closely followed by the two-Gaussian and log-normal. We derive the $1\%$-quantile of the preferred model's posterior predictive distribution to access information about the lower mass gap. For the Combined and LMXB Samples, we find $M_{1\%} > 4.06\,M_\odot$ and $M_{1\%} > 2.56\,M_\odot$ (at $90\%$ C.I.), respectively. The LMXB result allows for the existence of a sparsely populated Gap, instead of a completely empty one.
Comments31 pages, 17 figures
