Phorecaster365：一种用于混合制药销售预测与规划决策支持的人工监督参考架构
Phorecaster365: A Human-Supervised Reference Architecture for Hybrid Pharmaceutical Sales Forecasting and Planning Decision Support
浏览论文内容
中文总结 AI 辅助
提出Phorecaster365人工监督参考架构，通过预测上下文包和证据包连接ERP数据与可审查制药销售预测，并给出验证框架，旨在支持混合预测决策。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
制药销售预测为跨产品、区域和分销渠道的规划提供信息，然而其解读取决于库存可用性、交易语义、产品生命周期以及每次预测发布时可获得的信息。仅凭模型预测并不能保留这些条件，也无法确定预测是否适合操作使用。我们提出了Phorecaster365，一种人工监督的参考架构，将企业资源规划数据与可审查的制药销售预测相连接。该架构将源数据摄取、产品-区域序列构建、时间有效特征生成、统计与机器学习建模、集成形成、不确定性评估、规划者审查和生命周期治理分离开来。其核心中间表示是一个预测上下文包，保留源快照、预测目标、时间截止点、可用协变量、数据质量状态和层级版本。相应的预测证据包将预测与模型和校准版本、异常、人工调整和发布历史相关联。基于包含30个产品-区域序列的10,950条每日记录的合成面板的开发经验为设计提供了信息。历史实验摘要仅作为开发过程的描述性证据保留，因为其评估并未确立独立的预测有效性。我们指定了滚动起点评估协议、基线和消融要求、不确定性和稳健性评估，以及从合成测试到受治理规划中使用的分阶段路径。贡献在于一种实现无关的系统设计和验证框架；本报告并未确立现实世界预测准确性、比较优越性或操作效益。
英文摘要
Pharmaceutical sales forecasts inform planning across products, regions, and distribution channels, yet their interpretation depends on inventory availability, transaction semantics, product lifecycle, and the information available when each forecast is issued. A model prediction alone does not preserve these conditions or establish whether a forecast is suitable for operational use. We present Phorecaster365, a human-supervised reference architecture that connects enterprise resource planning data to reviewable pharmaceutical sales forecasts. The architecture separates source ingestion, product-region series construction, temporally valid feature generation, statistical and machine-learning modeling, ensemble formation, uncertainty assessment, planner review, and lifecycle governance. Its central intermediate representation is a forecast context package that preserves the source snapshot, forecast target, temporal cutoff, available covariates, data-quality state, and hierarchy version. A corresponding forecast evidence package links predictions to model and calibration versions, exceptions, human adjustments, and publication history. Development experience with a synthetic panel of 10,950 daily records across 30 product-region series informs the design. Historical experiment summaries are retained only as descriptive evidence of development because their evaluation does not establish independent predictive validity. We specify a rolling-origin evaluation protocol, baseline and ablation requirements, uncertainty and robustness assessments, and a staged pathway from synthetic testing to use in governed planning. The contribution is an implementation-neutral system design and validation framework; the report does not establish real-world forecasting accuracy, comparative superiority, or operational benefit.
发表机构
- Izlek Technology（伊兹莱克科技公司）
- Xylemed（赛莱迈德公司）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
