固定平衡策略下输电容量的一致性边界

中文摘要 AI 辅助

本文提出了一种数据驱动方法，用于在输电网中最小化调整基于预测的稳态发电调度。其目标是在固定自动发电控制（AGC）策略且不饱和运行的条件下，管理由需求和可再生能源发电不确定性引起的阻塞。在该策略下，我们首先证明AGC后的残余注入分布对计划发电调度具有不变性。这一结果将线路负载分为依赖于调度的基线部分和由不确定性引起的残余部分。利用历史预测误差，我们应用分裂一致性预测来构建输电线路边界，并具有无分布、有限样本的逐线或联合覆盖保证。我们还校准了AGC前的总失配量，以确定规定AGC响应所需的发电裕度。我们将这些校准量纳入一个凸的安全再调度问题中，该问题在保留足够的输电容量和AGC裕度的同时，最小程度地调整名义调度。由此产生的修正调度为逐线安全性和不饱和AGC运行提供了有限样本的概率保证。在RTS-GMLC系统上的案例研究表明，样本外线路限值违规显著减少，而运行成本增加适中。

英文摘要

This article presents a data-driven approach to minimally adjust forecast-based steady-state generation dispatch in electrical transmission networks. The goal is to manage congestion caused by uncertainty in demand and renewable generation under a fixed automatic generation control (AGC) policy operating without saturation. Under this policy, we first show that the post-AGC residual injection distribution is invariant to the scheduled generation dispatch. This result separates line loading into a dispatch-dependent baseline and an uncertainty-induced residual component. Using historical forecast errors, we then apply split conformal prediction to construct transmission-line margins with distribution-free, finite-sample linewise or joint coverage guarantees. We also calibrate the aggregate pre-AGC mismatch to determine the generation headroom required for the prescribed AGC response. We incorporate these calibrated quantities into a convex secure re-dispatch problem that minimally adjusts the nominal schedule while reserving sufficient transmission capacity and AGC headroom. The resulting corrected dispatch provides finite-sample probabilistic guarantees on per-line security and unsaturated AGC operation. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate substantial reductions in out-of-sample line-limit violations with modest operating-cost increases.

发表机构

• Texas A&M University（德克萨斯农工大学）
• Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。

补充信息

备注

6 pages, 3 figures