风电和光伏是否会在负电价时弃电？德国二十年可再生能源支持计划的激励与证据
Do wind and solar curtail at negative electricity prices? Incentives and evidence across two decades of German renewable support schemes
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- Hertie School（赫尔蒂学院）
- Neon Neue Energieökonomik（Neon新能源经济学）
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文研究德国风电光伏在负电价时的弃电行为，发现2025年低于-50欧元/兆瓦时仅半数风机弃电，光伏因上网电价补贴缺乏激励，指出需让可再生能源响应价格信号。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
在许多电力系统中，风电和光伏发电量日益频繁地超过电力需求。在这些时段削减可再生能源发电，既影响价格，也影响电网的物理稳定性。关闭风力涡轮机和太阳能电池板在技术上比让大型发电站降负荷更容易，然而支持计划往往给予可再生能源在负电价时继续生产的激励。本文研究德国的风电和光伏。对于每一代发电机，它逐小时估计了二十年支持政策所隐含的激励。然后，它将这些激励与观察到的行为进行对比，使用基于再分析天气数据构建的新的市场性弃电估计。我发现，在2025年，当电价低于-50欧元/兆瓦时，几乎所有风力发电机都有停止生产的激励，但只有一半这样做了。光伏则是相反的情况：近三分之二的潜在发电量根本没有弃电激励，主要是因为其获得的上网电价补贴使其免受批发电价影响。在暴露于电价风险的剩余部分中，仅有略超过五分之一削减了发电。低暴露率和低响应率推高了补贴支出，并使电力系统更难以安全运行。我得出结论，风电和光伏的进一步扩张要求它们对价格信号作出响应。
英文摘要
In many power systems, wind and solar generation increasingly often exceeds electricity demand. Curtailing renewable generation in those hours matters both for prices and for the physical stability of the grid. Turning off wind turbines and solar panels is technically easier than ramping down a large power station, yet support schemes often give renewables an economic incentive to keep producing at negative prices. This paper studies wind and solar energy in Germany. For each cohort of generators it estimates, hour by hour, the incentive implied by two decades of support policy. It then sets those incentives against observed behavior, using a new estimate of market-based curtailment built from reanalysis weather data. I find that in 2025, at prices below -50 EUR/MWh, almost all wind generators had an incentive to stop producing, but only half of them did. Solar is the opposite case: nearly two thirds of the potential had no incentive to curtail at all, mostly because it receives a feed-in tariff that shields it from wholesale prices. Of the exposed remainder, just over a fifth cut production. Low exposure and response rates inflate subsidy payments and make the power system harder to operate safely. I conclude that a further expansion of wind and solar requires them to respond to price signals.
