经济如何在空间中收缩：人口下降下的就业凹性与向上整合
How an Economy Shrinks in Space: Concavity-on-Jobs and Upward Consolidation under Demographic Decline
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究以日本为案例，通过分析人口下降下城市产业阈值与就业凹性，揭示行业向上整合及工人向东京迁移的激励机制。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
当一个国家的人口减少时，总体经济似乎在集约边际上收缩：产业结构保持完整，每个行业都略微变小。在区域层面，收缩是不均衡的，并采取粗放形式：整个行业一个接一个地消失。相关单位是城市：行业按规模嵌套——产业区位的层级属性——每个行业只有在最低人口规模以上才可行。必需品行业的阈值集中在低端，因此一个城市的行业数量——及其就业——在规模上呈明显凹性（就业凹性）。适度的损失会使小城市同时跌破多个阈值；大型核心城市则一次只失去少数专业化行业。消失的行业向上整合到下一个足够大的城市以容纳它们；对工人而言，这意味着降级到当地薪酬较低的工作。为了恢复收入，工人向上迁移至顶点——唯一拥有完整行业范围的城市。以日本为研究对象——比OECD领先二十年，东京为其顶点——利用承载迁移的年轻工人的个体层面面板数据，一项基于实际工资（含住房成本）的工资回归识别出因原籍地而异的东京导向迁移激励，该激励遵循就业凹性。
英文摘要
When a country's population declines, the aggregate economy appears to contract on the intensive margin: industrial diversity intact, every industry a little smaller. At the regional level, contraction is uneven and takes the extensive form: entire industries disappear, one after another. The relevant unit is the city: industries are nested by size - the hierarchy property of industrial location - each viable only above a minimum population. Necessity industries' thresholds bunch at the low end, so a city's industry count - and its jobs - is sharply concave in size (concavity on jobs). A modest loss pushes a small city below many thresholds at once; a large core sheds a few specialized industries, one at a time. Lost industries consolidate upward to the next city large enough to host them; for the worker it means a step down to a lower-paid local job. To recover that income, workers move up to the apex - the only city hosting the full industry range. Studying Japan - two decades ahead of the OECD, Tokyo at its apex - with worker-level panel data on the young workers who carry the migration, a wage regression in real, housing-inclusive wages identifies a Tokyo-bound migration incentive that varies by origin, following concavity on jobs.
发表机构
- Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University（京都大学经济研究所）
- Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)（经济产业研究所）
- Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University（京都大学经济学研究科）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
