发表机构
University of Groningen; University of Turin; IMT School for Advanced Studies; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)（格罗宁根大学; 都灵大学; 高级研究学院; 欧盟委员会联合研究中心）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究利用网络科学分析1992-2021年29个欧洲国家能源转型，发现路径多样性先增后减，且系统复杂性与非可再生能源比例波动正相关，揭示了转型动态特性。
AI 中文摘要
在追求可持续能源转型的背景下，将新能源形式整合到现有能源基础设施中已成为一项关键挑战。主要挑战之一在于理解这种整合如何发生，不仅涉及新形式的引入，还涉及能源如何沿着现有路径流动或创造新路径，并通过这些路径被不同活动转化和使用。在此，我们引入网络科学技术来分析1992年至2021年间29个欧洲国家的这一过程。我们研究新能源形式如何通过建立新路径以及替换或逐步淘汰现有路径，来增加或减少各国系统内路径的多样性（异质性）。我们发现，向基于可再生能源的系统转型的特点是，转型初期路径多样性增加，而在转型结束时，当系统中非可再生能源的比例趋于零时，路径异质性下降。随后，我们证明更大的异质性（复杂性）与系统中非可再生能源比例更大的年度波动相关，从而在转型进展与其发生的能源系统复杂性之间建立了直接关系。这有助于理解能源转型动力学的一般特性以及加速或阻碍转型的影响因素。
英文摘要
The integration of new energy forms into existing energy infrastructure has emerged as a critical challenge in the context of the pursuit of a sustainable energy transition. One of the main challenges is understanding how this integration takes place not only from the introduction, but also as energy follows existing paths or creates new ones through which it is transformed and used by different activities. Here we introduce techniques from network science to analyse this process for the case of 29 European countries between 1992 and 2021. We study how new energy forms increase or decrease the variety (heterogeneity) of paths through the system of each country by establishing new ones and replacing or phasing out existing ones. We find that the transition to systems based on renewable energy is characterised by an initial increase in the variety of paths while the heterogeneity of paths decreases at the end of the transition, when the proportion of non-renewables in the system tends to zero. We then demonstrate that greater heterogeneity (complexity) is associated with larger annual fluctuations in the proportion of non-renewable sources in the system, establishing a direct relationship between the progress of the transition and the complexity of the energy system in which it occurs. This contributes to the understanding of general properties of the dynamics of the energy transition and effects that accelerate or deter it.
