发表机构
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（喷气推进实验室，加州理工学院）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
提出商空间贝叶斯公式，通过扇区解析似然和贝叶斯因子，在物理扇区层面定量解释DESI时代宇宙学异常。
AI 中文摘要
我们提出了一种用于DESI时代异常解释的商空间贝叶斯公式。给定一个带有模式标签的目录，其中映射为\\(i\mapsto \Act(i)\\)，诱导后验\\(p(\Act\mid D)\\)、扇区包含概率\\(P_\alpha\\)、共激活概率\\(P_{\alpha\beta}\\)以及分组贝叶斯因子\\(B_\alpha(D)\\)是对预先声明的物理激活事件的精确汇总。诸如\lcdm\\与\wacdm\\之类的成对比较仍然是特定族之间的普通贝叶斯因子检验；商空间构造解决了当不同扇区由不等数量的目录元素表示时，哪个物理扇区承载后验支持这一更粗略的问题。我们推导了针对晚期背景、早期标尺、超新星校准、扰动和引力波传播扇区的扇区解析DESI-CMB-SN似然规范。该构造包括Alcock-Paczynski/各向同性尺度BAO分解、纯标尺投影、低秩超新星校准模式的解析边缘化、Fisher归一化扇区先验、非活动扇区泄漏检验、对数证据不确定性传播以及先验/扇区分区诊断。其结果是定量程序，用于在物理可解释扇区层面报告模型比较支持度。
英文摘要
We present a quotient-space Bayesian formulation for DESI-era anomaly interpretation. Given a pattern-labeled catalog with map \(i\mapsto \Act(i)\), the induced posterior \(p(\Act\mid D)\), sector inclusion probabilities \(P_α\), co-activation probabilities \(P_{αβ}\), and grouped Bayes factors \(B_α(D)\) are exact summaries over predeclared physical activation events. Pairwise comparisons such as \(\lcdm\) versus \(\wacdm\) remain ordinary Bayes-factor tests between specified families; the quotient construction addresses the coarser question of which physical sector carries posterior support when different sectors are represented by unequal numbers of catalog elements. We derive a sector-resolved DESI-CMB-SN likelihood specification for late-time background, early-time ruler, supernova calibration, perturbation, and gravitational-wave propagation sectors. The construction includes an Alcock-Paczynski/isotropic-scale BAO decomposition, a pure-ruler projection, analytic marginalization of low-rank supernova calibration modes, Fisher-normalized sector priors, inactive-sector leakage tests, log-evidence uncertainty propagation, and prior/sector-partition diagnostics. The result is a quantitative procedure for reporting model-comparison support at the level of physically interpretable sectors.
Comments22 pages, 2 figures, and 6 tables
Journal refPhys. Rev. D 114, 063505 (2026)
