瑞典临时存款上限期间间歇性在线赌博活动的双分辨率状态建模

中文摘要 AI 辅助

间歇性在线赌博记录产生两个不同的表征问题：日历时间分析必须保留没有记录玩法的代表日，而活跃行为分析则必须保留活跃发作期内的变化。我们将日历时间模型和活跃发作模型配对，对2019-2023年间来自单一运营商的1420万玩家日进行双分辨率分析。日历时间层在五个观察类别中保留可分配的代表日，并传播前期参考值。活跃发作层将贝叶斯混合发射隐半马尔可夫模型拟合到营业额、游戏时间、批准存款和会话次数。在参考四状态拟合中，两个状态共享一个四舍五入的模型隐含营业额中位数153.5欧元，而它们的模型隐含游戏时间和批准存款中位数分别相差4.6倍和5.7倍，预期总会话次数相差2.8倍。这种分离在普通隐马尔可夫模型、两次路由扰动和残差依赖性敏感性下仍然存在；测试的仅营业额拟合在诊断上不稳定。在瑞典临时存款上限期间，每个代表玩家日的存款和营业额比传播的参考值低约55%，活跃类别占用率低7.8%。预先指定的瑞典分配队列中最大的负偏差发生在政策前存款强度高的客户中。这些是运营商特定的描述性比较，而非因果政策效应。

英文摘要

Intermittent online gambling records create two distinct representation problems: calendar-time analyses must retain represented days with no recorded play, whereas analyses of active behaviour must preserve variation within active episodes. We pair calendar-time and active-bout models in a two-resolution analysis of 14.2 million player-days from a single operator during 2019-2023. The calendar-time layer retains assignable represented days in five observed categories and propagates a pre-period reference. The active-episode layer fits a Bayesian mixed-emission hidden semi-Markov model to turnover, playing time, approved deposits and session counts. In the reference four-regime fit, two regimes share a rounded model-implied turnover median of 153.5 EUR, while their model-implied playing-time and approved-deposit medians differ by factors of 4.6 and 5.7, respectively, and their expected total session counts by a factor of 2.8. This separation remains under an ordinary hidden Markov model, two routing perturbations and a residual-dependence sensitivity; the tested turnover-only fits were diagnostically unstable. Over the temporary Swedish deposit-cap period, deposits and turnover per represented player-day were roughly 55% below the propagated reference and active-category occupancy was 7.8% lower. The largest negative deviations in a prespecified Sweden-assigned cohort occurred among high pre-policy deposit-intensity customers. These are operator-specific descriptive comparisons, not causal policy effects.

发表机构

• Centre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet and Stockholm Health Care Services, Region Stockholm（卡罗林斯卡学院临床神经科学系精神病学研究中心和斯德哥尔摩医疗保健服务）
• Department of Mathematics, KTH Royal Institute of Technology（KTH皇家理工学院数学系）
• Clinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet（卡罗林斯卡学院索尔纳医学系临床流行病学部）
• Swedbank AB, Economic Crime Prevention（瑞典银行经济犯罪预防部门）
• Department of Psychology, Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学心理学系）
• School of Psychology, Korea University（高丽大学心理学院）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。

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67 pages, including supplementary material