工人再培训的证据综述
An evidence review of worker retraining
- Anthropic
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
本文综述工业国家补贴职业培训证据，基于56项随机试验元分析发现平均效果温和，但行业项目通过严格筛选和雇主合作可大幅提升收入，虽难以复制。
AI中文摘要：
我们综述了工业国家中补贴职业培训项目的证据。我们对美国主要职业培训的随机研究、美国和丹麦的两项“法官随机化”研究以及先前的元分析提供了批判性的叙述性总结。随后，我们对自1973年以来美国56项职业培训随机试验进行了元分析，这是该领域最详尽的元分析。在此，平均影响为正面但温和：在3至5年内，就业率上升1.7个百分点，年税前收入增加约每人800美元（针对被提供培训者）。在每位参与者平均成本为13,598美元的情况下，项目在关于收益持续时间的（有争议的）假设下大致收支平衡。通过更高的税收收入和更低的福利使用，政府回收了约四分之三的成本。对最大的联邦项目——JTPA（就业培训伙伴法案）、劳动力投资法案和Job Corps（职业训练团）——的评估显示效果很小或无效。有一类项目脱颖而出：“行业项目”，这些项目严格筛选申请者，与雇主共同设计课程，并跟踪当地技能需求。它们使收入提高了大约十倍。但事实证明，这些项目难以复制。
英文摘要：
We review the evidence on subsidized job training programs in industrial countries. We provide critical, narrative summaries of randomized studies of major job training in the US; of two "judge randomization" studies in the US and Denmark; and of previous meta-analyses. We then perform a meta-analysis of 56 randomized trials of job training in the US since 1973, the most exhaustive meta-analysis in this niche. Here, average impacts are positive but modest: employment rises 1.7 percentage points in years 3-5, and annual pre-tax earnings by roughly \$800 per person offered training. At an average cost of \$13,598 per participant, programs roughly break even under (debatable) assumptions about how long benefits persist. They recoup about three-quarters of their cost for government through higher tax revenue and lower benefit use. Evaluations of the largest federal efforts--JTPA, the Workforce Investment Act, and Job Corps--return small or null effects. One cluster of programs stands out: "sector programs," which screen applicants intensively, design curricula with employers, and track local skill demand. They raise earnings roughly ten times as much. They have proven difficult to replicate.
