发表机构
Reserve Bank of Australia（澳大利亚储备银行）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本文证明通胀供需分解的符号约束识别力依赖预测误差，实证显示美国通胀历史分解识别集通常无信息量，现有分解对辅助假设敏感。
AI 中文摘要
供给曲线和需求曲线斜率的符号约束常被用于识别结构向量自回归中的历史分解。我证明这些约束的识别力既取决于简化形式参数，也取决于已实现的预测误差。因此，与许多其他结构对象不同，识别强度无法仅从简化形式参数评估。实证上，美国通胀历史分解的识别集通常在总体上及大多数支出类别中基本无信息量。因此，现有的通胀分解对用于在观测等价模型中进行选择的辅助假设较为敏感。
英文摘要
Sign restrictions on the slopes of supply and demand curves are often used to identify historical decompositions in structural vector autoregressions. I show that the identifying power of these restrictions depends on both reduced-form parameters and realised forecast errors. Consequently, unlike many other structural objects, the strength of identification cannot be assessed from reduced-form parameters alone. Empirically, identified sets for historical decompositions of US inflation are typically largely uninformative, both in aggregate and in most expenditure categories. Existing inflation decompositions are therefore sensitive to auxiliary assumptions used to select among observationally equivalent models.
