发表机构
Iğdır University; Harvard University（伊格迪尔大学; 哈佛大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究校准CNEOS火球速度，发现其存在系统性偏差，并评估名义双曲线事件的稳健性，强调需独立三维轨迹确认星际起源。
AI 中文摘要
NASA/JPL CNEOS火球数据目录提供了近全球范围的明亮大气进入事件记录，但未报告每次事件的速度协方差。我们利用19个具有独立参考轨迹的事件校准其运动学精度，并使用光学、卫星、雷达和次声目录作为特定来源的对照。对于九次现代高质量比较，CNEOS减去参考速度的残差均值为-1.00 km/s，标准差为0.86 km/s；方差分解将0.77 km/s归因于CNEOS分量。辐射点残差每轴核心为0.74度，另有一个16.3度的离群值，因此极端尾部仍难以确定。在354个完整的CNEOS状态中，有七个在未修正情况下名义上为双曲线。+0.9935 km/s的大气阶段偏移产生额外五个穿越，但这些仅作为敏感性案例处理。Polar-IM（2026年4月1日）是2018年后最强的CNEOS异常，而独立的GLM-LI立体解给出57.3±2.0和56.7±3.0 km/s，接近其方向特定的抛物线阈值。我们得出结论，CNEOS可以识别优先候选事件，但可靠的星际分类需要对同一事件进行独立的、带有不确定性的三维轨迹测量。
英文摘要
The NASA/JPL CNEOS Fireball Data catalogue provides a near-global record of bright atmospheric entries but does not report per-event velocity covariance. We calibrate its kinematic accuracy using 19 events with independent reference trajectories and use optical, satellite, radar, and infrasound catalogues as source-specific controls. For nine modern high-quality comparisons, the CNEOS-minus-reference speed residual has mean -1.00 km s$^{-1}$ and standard deviation 0.86 km s$^{-1}$; variance decomposition assigns 0.77 km s$^{-1}$ to the CNEOS component. The radiant residuals have a 0.74 degree per-axis core plus one 16.3 degree outlier, so the extreme tail remains poorly determined. Seven of 354 complete CNEOS states are nominally hyperbolic without correction. A +0.9935 km s$^{-1}$ atmospheric-stage shift produces five additional crossings, but these are treated only as sensitivity cases. Polar-IM (2026 April 1) is the strongest post-2018 CNEOS anomaly, whereas independent GLM-LI stereo solutions yield 57.3 +/- 2.0 and 56.7 +/- 3.0 km s$^{-1}$, close to their direction-specific parabolic thresholds. We conclude that CNEOS can identify priority candidates, but secure interstellar classification requires an independent, uncertainty-bearing three-dimensional trajectory for the same event.
Comments29 pages, 11 figures, 11 tables
