发表机构
William Howard Taft University（威廉·霍华德·塔夫脱大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究利用2016-2021年安大略省南部数据，通过空间回归分析发现房价升值与多伦多通勤变化无显著相关，但住房市场扩展与可负担性呈空间异质性，强调住房、交通与区域规划整合的必要性。
AI 中文摘要
本研究调查了2016年至2021年间安大略省南部23个人口普查大都市区和市镇中住房市场升值、住房可负担性与前往多伦多的汽车通勤之间的空间关系。利用加拿大统计局人口普查数据，分析采用线性和二次普通最小二乘回归、全局和局部莫兰指数（Global and Local Moran's I）以及残差空间诊断，以评估平均住宅价值、业主住房成本负担和单独驾驶通勤的地理模式。研究发现，该区域平均住宅价值显著上升，与距多伦多的距离保持强非线性关系，表明存在持续的大都市可达性梯度。通勤量也表现出显著的非线性距离梯度；然而，住房升值与通勤百分比变化之间无显著相关性（$R^2$ = .045，p = .331），表明住房市场的扩张并未导致前往多伦多的汽车出行成比例增长。住房成本负担表现出较弱的距离关系及更强的残差空间依赖性，表明局部可负担性影响未能完全由距离或住宅价值解释。总体而言，研究结果表明区域住房市场日益扩展，且可负担性与通勤结果存在空间异质性，凸显了将住房、交通和区域规划相结合的重要性。
英文摘要
This study investigates the spatial relationships among housing-market appreciation, housing affordability, and automobile commuting to Toronto across 23 census metropolitan areas and municipalities in southern Ontario from 2016 to 2021. Utilizing Statistics Canada Census data, the analysis employed linear and quadratic ordinary least-squares regression, Global and Local Moran's I, and residual spatial diagnostics to assess geographic patterns in average dwelling values, owner shelter-cost burden, and lone-driver commuting. The study found that average dwelling values increased significantly throughout the region, maintaining a strong nonlinear relationship with distance from Toronto, which indicates a persistent metropolitan accessibility gradient. Commuter volumes also demonstrated pronounced nonlinear distance gradients; however, housing appreciation was not significantly correlated with percentage changes in commuting ($R^2$ = .045, p = .331), suggesting that the expansion of the housing market did not result in proportional growth in Toronto-bound automobile travel. The shelter-cost burden exhibited weaker distance relationships and greater residual spatial dependence, indicating localized affordability influences not fully explained by distance or dwelling values. Overall, the findings suggest an increasingly extensive regional housing market with spatially heterogeneous affordability and commuting outcomes, highlighting the importance of integrating housing, transportation, and regional planning.
Comments50 pages, 5 figures, 15 tables
