AI 中文总结
提出AgentHomeID多尺度智能体模型，显式模拟业主异质性，应用于德国国家、区域和街区尺度，揭示其对建筑转型路径和基础设施规划的关键影响。
AI 中文摘要
建筑部门的脱碳对于实现气候目标至关重要，然而现有模型很少能捕捉系统级转型动态与异质性个体投资决策之间的相互作用。本工作提出了AgentHomeID，一个基于智能体的建筑存量演化模型，其中业主行为、技术经济约束和监管框架在单个建筑及其业主的层面上被显式表示。该模型区分了自住业主、私人房东和机构业主，使用从经验性决策者研究中估计的支付意愿（WTP）参数，并同时适用于代表性建筑原型和源自地理信息系统（GIS）的真实建筑数据。我们通过三个应用展示了这种多功能性。在国家尺度上，对德国到2045年的情景分析表明，即使围护结构翻新不变，取消具有约束力的可再生供暖要求也会显著提高最终能源需求，并且补贴分配和投资活动在业主类型和收入四分位数之间差异显著，最低四分位数持续投资不足。在区域尺度上，对德国配电规划区域的自下而上模拟得出了NUTS-3级别的空间集中热泵采用情况，其在规模和空间分布上都与聚合的自上而下预测不同。在城市街区层面，相同的模拟解析了变电站级别的负荷异质性，并表明由热泵、电动汽车和光伏驱动的综合系统峰值与单个技术峰值不重合。在所有三个尺度上，业主异质性和地方结构实质性塑造了转型路径，表明在用于政策评估和基础设施规划的模型中应显式表示它们。
英文摘要
Decarbonising the building sector is central to meeting climate targets, yet existing models rarely capture the interaction between system-level transformation dynamics and heterogeneous individual investment decisions. This work presents AgentHomeID, an agent-based model of building stock evolution in which owner behaviour, techno-economic constraints, and regulatory frameworks are represented explicitly at the level of individual buildings and their owners. The model differentiates owner-occupiers, private landlords, and institutional owners, using willingness-to-pay (WTP) parameters estimated from empirical decision-maker studies, and operates on both representative building archetypes and real building data derived from geographic information systems (GIS). We demonstrate this versatility across three applications. At national scale, scenario analysis for Germany to 2045 shows that removing binding renewable heating requirements substantially raises final energy demand even where envelope refurbishment is unchanged, and that subsidy allocation and investment activity diverge sharply across owner types and income quartiles, with the lowest quartiles persistently underinvesting. At regional scale, bottom-up simulation for a German distribution grid planning region yields spatially concentrated heat pump uptake at NUTS-3 level that differs from aggregated top-down projections in both magnitude and spatial distribution. At urban block level, the same simulations resolve substation-level load heterogeneity and show that integrated system peaks driven by heat pumps, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics do not coincide with individual technology peaks. Across all three scales, owner heterogeneity and local structure materially shape transition pathways, indicating that they should be represented explicitly in models used for policy assessment and infrastructure planning.
CommentsSubmitted to Applied Energy
