发表机构
Louisiana State University（路易斯安那州立大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
该研究通过GPU轨迹数据推导工作负载语义灵活性包络，发现标量灵活性会高估或低估缓解量，聚合集群可提升坚定性，成果可用于电网相关合同。
AI 中文摘要
电网研究通常将数据中心灵活性表示为固定的负荷百分比，但尚无公开生产轨迹显示合格负荷在不同事件持续时间内的持续量或跨集群的协同变化。我们从155410个GPU的185天轨迹中重构了4439小时的电力观测数据，推导了工作负载语义灵活性包络。该集群的时间平均蒙特卡洛中位数设施需求为55.8MW，在保留已分配GPU空闲功率后，即时合格削减量平均为3.55MW，占工作负载功率的12.1%、占中位数设施功率的6.35%。在该合格性完全实现的情况下，95%可用缓解量从1小时的2.51MW降至4小时的2.32MW、24小时的1.95MW；常见的可实现分数q会将每个值精确缩放q倍。均值校准标量对这些量的高估分别为17%、25%和47%，而在4小时校准尾部的标量对1小时产品低估6%、对24小时产品高估17%；重现该表面的份额在不同持续时间和可靠性水平间相差1.6倍。聚合13个集群使4小时坚定性从0.38提升至0.66，但跨集群协方差限制了增益。生产调度器几乎未暴露额外的基于延迟的容量：新可延迟到达的平均为0.008MW，且95%可用容量为0。这些结果将假设的灵活性百分比替换为持续时间、可靠性、组合和可实现性项，可写入互联和需求响应合同。
英文摘要
Grid studies often represent data-center flexibility as a fixed percentage of load, although no public production trace has shown how much eligible load persists across event durations or co-moves across clusters. We reconstruct 4,439 hourly power observations from a 185-day trace of 155,410 GPUs and derive a workload-semantic flexibility envelope. The fleet's time-averaged Monte Carlo median facility demand is 55.8 MW, while immediate eligible curtailment averages 3.55 MW after retaining allocated-GPU idle power: 12.1% of workload power and 6.35% of median facility power. Under full realization of that eligibility, 95%-available relief falls from 2.51 MW for one hour to 2.32 MW for four hours and 1.95 MW for 24 hours; a common realizable fraction q scales every value exactly by q. A mean-calibrated scalar overstates these quantities by 17%, 25%, and 47%, while a scalar tail-calibrated at four hours understates the one-hour product by 6% and overstates the 24-hour product by 17%; the share that reproduces the surface varies by a factor of 1.6 across durations and reliability levels. Aggregating 13 clusters raises four-hour firmness from 0.38 to 0.66, but cross-cluster covariance limits the gain. The production scheduler exposes almost no additional delay-based capacity: newly deferrable arrivals average 0.008 MW and have zero 95%-available capacity. These results replace an assumed flexibility percentage with duration, reliability, portfolio, and realizability terms that can be written into interconnection and demand-response contracts.
Comments20 pages, 18 figures, 5 tables. Code and derived data: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22308423
