极端高温对未来东亚光伏发电潜力的影响
Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia
- Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology（蔚山科学技术院）
- Pohang University of Science and Technology（浦项科技大学）
- Pusan National University（釜山国立大学）
- Kongju National University（公州国立大学）
- Yonsei University（延世大学）
- Konkuk University（建国大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究针对东亚区域，发现未来极端高温天数的光伏发电潜力将持续下降，且高碳排放情景下降幅更大，近地面气温是核心驱动因素。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
随着全球变暖加剧，极端高温事件的频率和强度预计将增加，这会影响光伏（PV）的发电，而光伏作为替代化石燃料能源、减少二氧化碳排放的有效选择正被广泛采用。此外，极端高温天数在光伏高发电潜力（PVpot）天数中占相当大的比例。因此，本研究调查东亚未来极端高温天数的PVpot变化，东亚是温室气体排放量大且易受极端气候事件影响的地区。所有情景和未来时段内，东亚平均极端高温天数的PVpot估计均呈下降趋势；到21世纪后期，该下降幅度将更大，且高碳排放情景下的下降幅度比低碳排放情景更显著。到21世纪中期和后期，光伏热点地区（尤其是中国北部和蒙古南部）的极端高温天数PVpot预计下降，最大降幅达-7.2%。夏季平均条件下，各子区域的PVpot预测符号存在差异，但在极端高温天数中，所有地区的PVpot预计均持续下降，这表明极端高温会进一步加剧PVpot的下降。此外，在极端高温条件下，所考虑的气候变量中，近地面气温被确定为PVpot下降的主要驱动因素，其影响预计会随时间增强，从而在高碳排放情景下加速PVpot的下降。
英文摘要
As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel-based energy sources and reduce CO2 emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. By the mid-and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to -7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub-regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high-carbon emissions scenario.
