AI 中文总结
本研究针对美国麻疹面临根除状态丧失的问题，采用新型可变带通周期块自助法（VBPBB）分析纽约市麻疹数据，识别出其他方法无法发现的显著周期成分，为相关疾病研究提供了可复用方法。
AI 中文摘要
麻疹是一种高度传染性的致命病毒，在美国面临失去根除状态的风险。了解麻疹的模式（包括季节性），可为病毒重新出现时的预测、预防和公共卫生准备提供极大帮助。新型可变带通周期块自助法（Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap, VBPBB）可抑制噪声和干扰信号，相比其他现有方法，在识别周期成分方面更高效且统计功效更强。使用该方法，我们在纽约市麻疹病例的历史数据中发现了其他方法无法识别的若干显著周期成分。这些发现为理解麻疹及其他疾病提供了可复用的方法，也让我们更深入地洞察若麻疹疫苗接种率持续下降可能出现的情况。
英文摘要
Measles, a highly contagious, deadly virus, is at risk of losing its eradication status in the Unites States. Understanding the pattern, including seasonality, of measles could provide great benefit for forecasting, prevention, and public health preparedness as the virus re-emerges. The novel Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VBPBB), which suppresses noise and interfering signals, is more efficient and statistically powerful to find periodic components compared to other existing methods. Using this method, we have found several significant periodic components in historical New York City measles cases which other methods were incapable of identifying. These findings give us a reusable method for understanding measles and other diseases and greater insight into what may occur should measles vaccine rates continue to fall.
Comments20 pages, 13 figures, 1 table
