发表机构
University of California, Santa Cruz（加利福尼亚大学圣克鲁兹分校）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究通过统计回归模型分析北加州野火烟雾对作物产量的影响，发现烟雾颗粒物与酿酒葡萄产量降低相关，为纳入野火威胁的农艺模型奠定基础。
AI 中文摘要
气候变化和日益严重的野火对人类和生态系统构成重大威胁，但很少有研究关注野火对作物的影响。除了农业工人面临健康风险、作物受损等直接影响外，有证据表明烟雾可能影响作物的生产力和品质。本研究旨在分析野火烟雾对北加利福尼亚州作物生产的影响。我们使用统计回归模型，结合多种不同的气候和空气质量预测变量，量化了颗粒物与葡萄产量之间的关系。我们的分析确定了野火烟雾排放导致的空气质量恶化与酿酒葡萄产量降低之间的关联。在三个研究地点中的两个，颗粒物与温度结合成为显著的预测变量。索诺玛（Sonoma）和纳帕（Napa）的最终模型R²值分别为0.79和0.66，表明产量从仅受气候控制转变为受野火和气候共同控制。这项工作为下一代农艺模型奠定了基础，这些模型将纳入野火对农业生产系统日益增长的威胁。
英文摘要
Climate change and increasingly severe wildfires pose significant threats to both people and ecosystems, yet little research has focused on the impacts of wildfires on crops. In addition to direct effects such as health risks to agricultural workers and crop damage, there is evidence that smoke may affect crop productivity and quality. This study aims to analyze the effects of wildfire smoke on crop production in Northern California. We quantified the relationship of particulate matter on grape yields using statistical regression models with a wide range of different climate and air quality predictor variables. Our analysis identifies an association between air quality deterioration due to wildfire smoke emissions and reduction in wine grape yields. For two of the three study sites, particulate matter emerged as a significant predictor variable in combination with temperature. Final models for Sonoma and Napa had R2 values of 0.79 and 0.66 respectively, suggesting a shift from climate only-controlled yields to wildfire and climate-controlled yields. This work sets the stage for the next generation of agronomic models that incorporate the growing threat of wildfire on agriculture production systems.
