AI 中文总结
本研究提出统一投球图（UPG），将其应用于棒球投球策略的回顾性分析，在 MLB 394 万个投球数据上验证，该方法可提升路径覆盖率与执行重建精度，还能定位离散表示无法检测的执行变化。
AI 中文摘要
棒球中的投球策略既通过物理执行方式体现，也通过投球使用的有序上下文体现，但常见表示方法将投球简化为离散类型或汇总统计数据。我们提出统一投球图（Unified Pitch Graph，UPG），这是一种用于顺序时空事件回顾性分析的分层图表示方法。UPG 将每个投球作为带有重建三维轨迹和上下文的精确事件保留，通过有向序列边连接连续投球，并在语义和时间分辨率上组织相同事件。当重复证据不足时，支持自适应机制会从精细长序列中退避，同时保留精确的事件谱系。我们在 2021 至 2026 年的 394 万个美国职业棒球大联盟（MLB）Statcast 投球数据上对 UPG 进行评估。名义上相同的投球序列表现出不同的物理执行方式，且有序结构在更长的上下文条件路径中变得愈发明显。支持自适应退避将保留路径覆盖率从 18.9% 提高至 94.9%，同时将执行重建的 R² 从 0.495 提高至 0.685。UPG 还能可靠定位离散投球组合和序列表示无法检测到的受控执行变化。这些结果表明，UPG 提供了一种可追踪的多尺度表示方法，用于识别重复策略模式，且不会将回顾性关联与因果或未来表现主张混淆。
英文摘要
Pitching strategy in baseball is expressed through both physical execution and the ordered context in which pitches are used, yet common representations collapse pitches into discrete types or aggregate statistics. We present Unified Pitch Graphs (UPG), a hierarchical graph representation for retrospective analysis of sequential spatiotemporal events. UPG preserves each pitch as an exact event with reconstructed three-dimensional trajectory and context, connects consecutive pitches through directed sequence edges, and organizes the same events across semantic and temporal resolutions. A support-adaptive mechanism backs off from fine, long sequences when repeated evidence is insufficient, while retaining exact event lineage. We evaluate UPG on 3.94 million MLB Statcast pitches from 2021 to 2026. Nominally identical pitch sequences exhibit distinct physical executions, and ordered structure becomes increasingly evident in longer context-conditioned paths. Support-adaptive backoff increases held-out path coverage from 18.9\% to 94.9\% while improving execution reconstruction from $R^2=0.495$ to $0.685$. UPG also reliably localizes controlled execution changes that discrete pitch-mix and sequence representations cannot detect. These results demonstrate that UPG provides a traceable, multi-scale representation for identifying recurring strategy patterns without conflating retrospective associations with causal or future-performance claims.
Comments10 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables
