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$\boldsymbol{\text{Z}^d}$上具有规避和隔离机制的流行病模型

Epidemics with avoidance and isolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$

Andrew Heeszel, Matthew Wascher

arXiv 2609.03359首次发表:更新:

发表机构

University of California, Davis; Case Western Reserve University(加州大学戴维斯分校; 凯斯西储大学)

机构由 AI 辅助整理,请以论文原文为准。

AI 中文总结

本文研究$\boldsymbol{\text{Z}^d}$上带规避和隔离的流行病接触过程,确定感染消失与持续的阈值λ,证明阈值随$\boldsymbol{1/d}$缩放,结果可推广至SIRS等模型。

AI 中文摘要

带规避机制的接触过程是经典接触过程(SIS流行病)的推广,它引入了健康个体规避受感染邻居的机制。设$\text{G}$为有向图,在每个时刻$\text{t}$,每个顶点要么健康要么受感染,每条边要么活跃要么不活跃。每个受感染顶点以速率$\boldsymbol{\text{λ}}$通过每条活跃边感染其健康邻居,以速率1恢复;同时,每条从受感染顶点指向健康顶点的活跃边以速率$\boldsymbol{\text{α}}$变为不活跃,不活跃边则在其尾顶点恢复时变为活跃。该模型此前已在$\boldsymbol{\text{Z}}$、$\boldsymbol{\text{n}}$环$\boldsymbol{\text{Z}_n}$和$\boldsymbol{\text{n}}$星图上研究,本文将其研究扩展至$\boldsymbol{\text{d} \text{≥} 2}$的晶格$\boldsymbol{\text{Z}^d}$。研究表明,对每个$\boldsymbol{\text{d} \text{≥} 2}$及固定$\boldsymbol{\text{α} \text{>} 0}$,存在常数$\boldsymbol{\text{λ(α,d)}^-}$和$\boldsymbol{\text{λ(α,d)}^+}$:当$\boldsymbol{\text{λ} \text{<} \text{λ(α,d)}^-}$时,感染几乎必然消失;当$\boldsymbol{\text{λ} \text{>} \text{λ(α,d)}^+}$时,感染以正概率持续存在。此外,还证明$\boldsymbol{\text{λ(α,d)}^-}$和$\boldsymbol{\text{λ(α,d)}^+}$在$\boldsymbol{\text{d} \text{→} \text{∞}}$时均按$\boldsymbol{1/d}$缩放,且存在常数$\boldsymbol{\text{C(α)}}$,当$\boldsymbol{\text{λ} \text{>} \text{C(α)/d}}$且$\boldsymbol{\text{d}}$足够大时,该过程具有非平凡不变测度。本文的方法及多数结果也适用于SIRS模型和相关模型(受感染顶点以速率$\boldsymbol{\text{α}}$进入隔离状态,从隔离态和感染态以速率1恢复为健康态)。

英文摘要

The contact process with avoidance is a generalization of the classical contact process (SIS epidemic) that introduces a mechanism for healthy individuals to avoid their infected neighbors. Let $G$ be a directed graph. At each time $t$, each vertex is either healthy or infected and each edge is either active or inactive. Each infected vertex infects each healthy neighbor across each active edge at rate $λ$ and recovers at rate $1$, while each active edge pointing from an infected vertex to a healthy vertex becomes inactive at rate $α$. An inactive edge becomes active when its tail vertex recovers. This model has been previously studied on $\mathbb{Z}$, the $n$-cycle $\mathbb{Z}_n$, and the $n$-star graph; here we extend the study of this model to lattices $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d \geq 2$. We show that for every $d \geq 2$ and fixed $α> 0$, there exist constants $λ(α,d)^-$ and $λ(α,d)^+$ such that for all $λ< λ(α,d)^-$ the infection dies out almost surely while for all $λ> λ(α,d)^+$ the infection persists indefinitely with positive probability. Furthermore, we show that both $λ(α,d)^-$ and $λ(α,d)^+$ scale like $1/d$ as $d \rightarrow \infty$ and that there exists a constant $C(α)$ such that when $λ> C(α)/d$ the process has a nontrivial invariant measure for $d$ sufficiently large. Our methods and most of our results also apply to the SIRS model and a related model in which infected vertices enter an isolated state at rate $α$ and transition from both isolated and infected to healthy at rate $1$.

Comments16 pages, 1 figure, fixed typos in abstract and added some additional discussion to the introduction

论文原文

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