发表机构
University of Virginia; North Carolina State University（弗吉尼亚大学; 北卡罗来纳州立大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
该研究通过NC-tALC的150次受控实验，提出基于SigT时刻相对位置与速度的Firth逻辑回归模型，实现0.89的五折交叉验证准确率，揭示tAV变道前的纵向准备规律，为变道模型提供支撑。
AI 中文摘要
本文研究量产过渡型自动驾驶车辆（tAV）如何制定并执行强制性变道决策。利用NC-tALC实验中的150次受控强制性变道，研究人员考察在横向移动开始前，最终目标间隙是否可观测，以及tAV如何从该变道前状态纵向推进至变道开始。信号时间（SigT）被定义为变道开始前的一个操作参考点。采用Firth逻辑回归，利用SigT时刻的相对位置和相对速度，预测tAV最终会并入最近目标车道车辆的前方还是后方。随后，针对处于当前位置和重新定位两种情况，分别考察从SigT到变道开始的纵向推进情况。SigT时刻的交通状态包含关于最终目标间隙选择的大量信息，且在横向移动开始前提供了充足的提前时间。所提出的模型可预测tAV是保持当前间隙，还是通过向前或向后移动重新定位至相邻间隙，包括存在纵向重叠和当前间隙几何形状模糊的情况。该模型的五折交叉验证平均准确率达0.89。结果还提供了初步证据，表明处于当前位置和重新定位的情况，从SigT到变道开始遵循不同的纵向路径。这些发现支持可观测变道过程的两阶段猜想：从SigT到变道开始的纵向准备，随后是横向操纵执行。该模型适用于处于当前位置、重新定位以及纵向重叠的情况，可支持将目标间隙选择与横向启动时间区分开，同时体现横向移动前纵向准备的变道模型。
英文摘要
This paper investigates how a production transitional autonomous vehicle (tAV) develops and executes mandatory lane-change decisions. Using 150 controlled mandatory lane changes from the NC-tALC experiments, the study examines whether the eventual target gap is observable before lateral movement begins and how the tAV progresses longitudinally from that pre-lane-change state to lane-change start. Signal time (SigT) is defined as an operational pre-lane-change-start reference point. A Firth logistic regression predicts whether the tAV eventually merges in front of or behind its nearest target-lane vehicle using relative position and relative speed at SigT. Longitudinal progression from SigT to lane-change start is then examined separately for in-position and repositioning cases. The traffic state at SigT contains substantial information about eventual target-gap choice and provides meaningful lead time before lateral movement begins. The proposed formulation predicts whether the tAV remains with its current gap or repositions to a neighboring gap by moving forward or dropping back, including cases with longitudinal overlap and ambiguous current-gap geometry. The model achieves an average five-fold cross-validated accuracy of 0.89. Results also provide preliminary evidence that in-position and repositioning cases follow different longitudinal pathways from SigT to lane-change start. These findings support a two-stage conjecture of the observable lane-change process: longitudinal preparation from SigT to lane-change start, followed by lateral maneuver execution. The formulation applies to in-position, repositioning, and longitudinally overlapping cases, and can support lane-change models that distinguish target-gap choice from lateral-onset timing while representing longitudinal preparation before lateral movement begins.
