AI 中文总结
该研究针对分布式能源资源部署带来的配电网扩容问题，量化了分时电价、实时电价两种时变电价的影响，发现高渗透率会逆转时变电价降低扩容成本的效果，明确了两类电价的最优渗透率阈值及对应的扩容需求增幅。
AI 中文摘要
分布式能源资源（包括热泵、电动汽车、光伏和电池储能）的快速部署正在重塑低压电网的运行模式。配电网运营商通常希望通过制定时变电价来激励有利于电网的行为，从而推迟电网扩容，但这可能会引发产消者同步问题。当产消者遵循价格信号调整行为时，其行为可能出现同步，避开现有负荷高峰的同时在其他时段产生不期望的高峰。本文量化了从固定电价转向两种时变电价（分时电价 Time-of-Use、实时电价 Real-Time Pricing）时对低压电网扩容需求的影响。我们在瑞士471个低压参考电网中应用混合整数线性模型，结合2050年分布式能源资源部署预测评估扩容需求。模型中，产消者根据所订阅的电价运行其分布式能源资源以最小化成本，配电网运营商随后优化扩容方案。结果表明，采用时变电价可将扩容投资成本降低50%以上，但高渗透率会逆转这一下降趋势；具体而言，一旦产消者渗透率超过分时电价的最优阈值50%、实时电价的最优阈值40%，每额外提升20%的电价渗透率，扩容需求将分别增加39%和134%。
英文摘要
The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources, including heat pumps, electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and battery storage, is reshaping the operation of low-voltage networks. While distribution system operators often aim to develop time-varying tariffs to incentivise network-friendly behaviour and defer reinforcements, they risk triggering prosumer synchronisation. As prosumers follow price signals, their behaviour may synchronise, avoiding existing load peaks while creating undesirable peaks at other times. This paper quantifies the impact on low-voltage network reinforcement needs when shifting from flat tariffs to two time-varying tariffs: Time-of-Use and Real-Time Pricing. Applying a mixed-integer linear model across 471 low-voltage reference networks in Switzerland, we evaluate expansion requirements under projections of distributed energy resource deployment for 2050. In the model, prosumers operate their distributed energy resources in accordance with their subscribed electricity tariff to minimise costs, and the distribution system operator subsequently optimises reinforcements. Our results demonstrate that while adopting time-varying tariffs can reduce reinforcement investment costs by more than 50%, high adoption rates can reverse this declining trend. Specifically, once prosumer adoption exceeds the optimal thresholds of 50% for Time-of-Use and 40% for Real-Time Pricing, reinforcement needs increase by 39% and 134%, respectively, for an additional 20% of tariff adoption.
