发表机构
Technische Universiteit Delft; ESA ESRIN/PDO/NEO Coordination Centre; ESA ESAC/PDO; ESA ESOC/PDO（代尔夫特理工大学; 欧洲航天局地球观测中心近地天体协调中心; 欧洲航天局太空科学中心; 欧洲航天局航天操作中心）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
该研究提出一种从头框架，可直接从近地小行星撞击前轨道解预测其散落场，无需火球数据，验证显示位置误差100-200米，已整合至ESA Aegis管线用于提前数小时计算撞击位置以支持回收与民防决策。
AI 中文摘要
到达地球的流星体通量是连续的，范围从微观颗粒到偶尔出现的米级和十米级天体。最小的流星体在上层大气中完全消融，而足够大或强度足够的天体则能在进入时存活，并将碎片以陨石的形式沉积在地面。预测这些碎片的着陆位置，以及重建产生这些碎片的大气轨迹和碎裂序列，对危险评估和回收新掉落的物质都至关重要。然而，这种预测的准确性受到受限的碎裂过程以及单个事件稀疏、异质的观测覆盖的限制。传统的散落场模拟依赖于详细的火球数据和针对特定事件的碎片质量、空气动力学及碎裂假设。这些方法在有良好仪器观测的事件中有效，但在观测稀疏时适用性迅速下降，往往导致巨大的不确定性。我们提出了一种从头框架（ab initio framework），可直接从撞击前轨道解预测近地小行星的散落场。该框架基于物理的平动动力学模型和真实大气条件传播发光轨迹和黑暗飞行，无需火球三角测量或特定事件调整。对近期已回收陨石的小行星坠落事件的验证显示与观测结果一致，标称解能将坠落位置复现至100-200米范围内。该新方法已被整合至欧空局（ESA）的Aegis管线中，目前可实现提前数小时计算撞击位置，支持回收工作、减少污染，并在天体尺寸和预测地面危险 warranted的情况下，支持民防决策。
英文摘要
The flux of meteoroids reaching the Earth is continuous, ranging from microscopic grains to occasional metre and decametre scale bodies. The smallest ones fully ablate in the upper atmosphere, whereas sufficiently large or strong objects survive entry and deposit fragments on the ground as meteorites. Predicting where these fragments land, and reconstructing the atmospheric trajectory and fragmentation sequence that produced them, is central both to hazard assessment and to the recovery of freshly fallen material. The accuracy of such predictions, however, remains limited by poorly constrained fragmentation processes and by sparse, heterogeneous observational coverage of individual events. Traditional strewn field simulations rely on detailed fireball data and event-specific assumptions on fragment masses, aerodynamics, and breakup. These approaches are effective for well-instrumented events, but their applicability degrades rapidly when observations are sparse, often resulting in huge uncertainties. We present an ab initio framework predicting strewn fields of near-Earth asteroids directly from pre-impact orbital solutions. It propagates luminous trajectory and dark flight using a physics-based translational dynamics model and realistic atmospheric conditions, without requiring fireball triangulation or event-specific tuning. Validation against recent asteroid falls with recovered meteorites shows agreement with observations, with nominal solutions reproducing fall locations within 100-200 m. The new method has been integrated into the ESA Aegis pipeline, which now enables hours-ahead computation of impact locations, supporting recovery efforts, minimizing contamination, and, where warranted by object size and predicted ground hazard, civil-protection decision making.
CommentsAccepted for publication in Icaurs
DOI：10.1016/j.icarus.2026.117303
