发表机构
Argonne National Laboratory; Texas A&M University; The University of Tennessee, Knoxville; Chicago Metro. Agency for Planning（阿贡国家实验室; 德克萨斯农工大学; 田纳西大学诺克斯维尔分校; 芝加哥大都市规划署）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究采用POLARIS智能体框架，模拟2050年芝加哥地区9种政策情景，量化了电气化、货运管理等政策对交通、能源的影响，为区域规划提供见解。
AI 中文摘要
大都市地区正同时推进多项干预措施，以改善流动性、可达性和能源效率，因此需要集成工具来理解这些政策如何相互作用，影响出行行为、能源使用和基础设施需求。本文以“一切照旧（BAU）”情景为基线，评估了电气化、货运需求管理、道路定价、停车改革和公共交通扩展对2050年芝加哥大都市交通系统的综合影响。我们采用POLARIS——一个校准至2019年条件的大规模智能体建模框架，对伊利诺伊州东北部七县区域模拟了9种政策情景。该框架协同模拟基于活动的客运需求、内生货运生成、多模式交通分配和公共交通运营，并针对每种情景优化充电基础设施和货运运营。研究结果表明，在高电气化情景下，总燃料质量较BAU下降68%，而总充电能源较BAU增加约4-8倍，导致城市核心区出现近4吉瓦的峰值电力需求。此外，货运管理政策通过增加出行频率但缩短距离来降低货运车辆行驶里程（VMT），智能道路定价最能减少私家车VMT，公共交通扩展使客运量较BAU提升18%。本研究提供了首个针对芝加哥的集成智能体情景框架，可联合评估这些干预措施，为区域交通规划、电网基础设施投资和减排提供可操作的见解，强调了针对性充电器升级和协调政策组合的价值。
英文摘要
Metropolitan regions are simultaneously pursuing several interventions to improve mobility, accessibility, and energy efficiency, necessitating integrated tools to understand how these policies interact to affect travel behavior, energy use, and infrastructure needs. This paper evaluates the combined impacts of electrification, freight demand management, road pricing, parking reform, and transit expansion on the Chicago metropolitan transportation system in 2050, using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario as the baseline. We employ POLARIS, a large-scale agent-based modeling framework calibrated to 2019 conditions, to simulate nine policy scenarios for the seven-county northeastern Illinois region. The framework co-simulates activity-based passenger demand, endogenous freight generation, multimodal traffic assignment, and transit operations, with charging infrastructure and freight operations optimized for each case. Our findings reveal that under the high electrification scenario, total fuel mass declines by 68% while total charging energy increases by approximately 4-8x from BAU, resulting in a peak power demand near 4 GW concentrated in the urban core. Furthermore, freight management policies reduce freight VMT by increasing trip frequency but shortening distances, smart road pricing most effectively reduces auto VMT, and transit expansion boosts ridership by 18% relative to BAU. By presenting the first integrated, agent-based scenario framework for Chicago that jointly evaluates these interventions, this study provides actionable insights for regional transportation planning, grid infrastructure investment, and emissions reduction, highlighting the value of targeted charger upgrades and coordinated policy bundles.
