将日震学远侧活动区纳入表面通量输运（SFT）模型的概率框架
A Probabilistic Framework for Incorporating Helioseismic Far-Side Active Regions into SFT Models
- Southwest Research Institute（西南研究所）
- Northwest Research Associates（西北研究协会）
- W. W. Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory, Stanford University（斯坦福大学W.W.汉森实验物理实验室）
- Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory（海军研究实验室空间科学部）
- National Solar Observatory（国家太阳观测台）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
本研究开发了将日震学远侧活动区纳入表面通量输运模型的概率框架，构建逻辑回归模型提升探测精度，发现传统模拟低估太阳总磁通量约10%-20%，为全太阳磁场建模提供可行途径。
AI中文摘要：
表面通量输运（SFT）模型通常用于模拟太阳光球层的磁场，并为日冕和日球层模型提供内边界条件，但它们根本上受到缺乏太阳远侧通量浮现直接信息的限制。为解决这一问题，我们开发了一个将日震学远侧活动区图像（HIFAR）纳入平流通量输运（AFT）模型的框架。利用从HIFAR推断出的近同步磁通量图（HIFARM），以及2010年5月13日至2014年8月18日期间的STEREO/EUVI 304 A观测数据，我们开发了一个逻辑回归模型，基于磁通量、场强和位置的描述符来估计日震学探测对应于活动区（AR）的概率。该模型在概率阈值为0.73时，活动区探测的精度达到0.93，此阈值被选定用于排除90%的“幽灵”活动区。我们还推导了HIFARM与AFT通量之间的经验标度关系，以将HIFARM置于AFT通量标度上，并证明该框架在多个太阳自转周期内重现了与近侧观测一致的活动区通量演化。在全球尺度上，我们发现传统的近侧驱动AFT模拟低估了总未标定磁通量，约为太阳总磁通量预算的10%-20%。本工作开发的概率AR探测模型和完整框架为将日震学远侧AR纳入SFT模型提供了可行途径，是实现全太阳磁场真实建模的一步。
英文摘要：
Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models are routinely used to model the Sun's photospheric magnetic field and provide inner boundary conditions for coronal and heliospheric models, yet they remain fundamentally limited by the lack of direct information about flux emergence on the far side of the Sun. To address this, we develop a framework for incorporating helioseismic images of far-side active regions (HIFAR), into the Advective Flux Transport (AFT) model. Using near-simultaneous magnetic flux maps (HIFARM) inferred from HIFAR, and STEREO/EUVI 304 A observations from 2010 May 13 to 2014 August 18, we develop a logistic regression model to estimate the probability that a helioseismic detection corresponds to an AR based on descriptors of magnetic flux, field strength, and location. The model achieves a precision of 0.93 for active region (AR) detections at a probability threshold of 0.73, selected to reject 90% of "ghost" ARs. We also derive an empirical scaling relationship between HIFARM and AFT flux to place HIFARM on the AFT flux scale and demonstrate that the framework reproduces the flux evolution of ARs consistent with near-side observations over multiple solar rotations. At the global scale, we find that conventional near-side-driven AFT simulations underestimate the total unsigned magnetic flux by ~10-20% of the Sun's total magnetic flux budget. The probabilistic AR detection model and the complete framework developed in this work provide a practical pathway for incorporating helioseismic far-side ARs into SFT models, a step toward realistic modeling of full-Sun magnetic field.
