SORCE/XPS记录中的太阳光谱辐照度极值
Extremes of solar spectral irradiance in the SORCE/XPS record
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- University of Brasília（巴西利亚大学）
- Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte（北里奥格兰德联邦大学）
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究针对SORCE/XPS记录的太阳辐照度，采用广义极值模型结合极值理论，构建了考虑不确定性的天文统计基线以分析其极值变化。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
空间任务太阳辐照度记录中的极端且罕见变化具有科学相关性，但难以量化，因为这些记录有限、依赖仪器，且受观测间隙和时变测量质量的影响。我们评估了2005年至2019年期间，由太阳辐射与气候实验/X射线光度计系统（SORCE/XPS）的光电二极管7测量的0.1-7.0 nm波段积分辐照度的日对数变化极值。通过线性插值构建规则日序列后，我们分析了辐照度的日对数变化，并对60天块最大值和经过变换的15天块最小值拟合了平稳广义极值（GEV）模型。块长度通过Ljung-Box诊断和样本自相关函数选择。最大似然估计用作主要推断方法，概率加权矩作为敏感性检验。最大似然GEV形状估计值对于最大值为0.1661，对于变换后的最小值为0.2928，两种拟合方法下的估计值高度一致。这些正的点估计值与所选块结构下的弗雷歇型尾部相符。年化回报水平为极端相对增加和减少提供了可解释的总结，但长回报期的估计仍强烈依赖于15年记录之外的外推。报告的测量精度和绝对不确定性用于限定拟合尾部的解释，未通过似然传播。通过结合基于极值理论（EVT）的尾部建模与对测量精度、绝对不确定性、插值及任务数据间隙的明确考虑，该分析为从处理后的太阳任务记录中进行极值推断提供了一种考虑不确定性的天文统计基线。
英文摘要
Extreme and rare changes in space mission solar irradiance records are scientifically relevant but difficult to quantify because these records are finite, instrument dependent, and affected by observational gaps and time varying measurement quality. We evaluated extreme daily logarithmic changes in the band integrated 0.1-7.0 nm irradiance measured by photodiode 7 of the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment/X-Ray Photometer System (SORCE/XPS) from 2005 to 2019. After constructing a regular daily series by linear interpolation, we analyzed daily logarithmic changes in irradiance and fitted stationary Generalized Extreme Value models to 60 day block maxima and transformed 15 day block minima. Block lengths were selected using Ljung-Box diagnostics and sample autocorrelation functions. Maximum likelihood estimation was used as the primary inferential method, with probability weighted moments as a sensitivity check. The maximum likelihood GEV shape estimates were 0.1661 for maxima and 0.2928 for transformed minima, with closely aligned estimates under the two fitting methods. These positive point estimates are compatible with Fréchet type tails under the selected block constructions. Annualized return levels provide interpretable summaries of extreme relative increases and reductions, but estimates for long return periods remain strongly dependent on extrapolation beyond the 15 year record. Reported measurement precision and absolute uncertainty were used to qualify the interpretation of the fitted tails and were not propagated through the likelihood. By combining EVT based tail modeling with explicit consideration of measurement precision, absolute uncertainty, interpolation, and mission data gaps, the analysis provides an uncertainty aware astrostatistical baseline for extreme value inference from processed solar mission records.
