脱碳价格形成：英国平衡机制中电池储能与不平衡价格的机组层面证据
Decarbonising price formation: unit-level evidence on battery storage and the imbalance price in the GB Balancing Mechanism
- UCL Energy Institute, University College London（伦敦大学学院能源研究所）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
该研究以英国平衡机制50684个结算期数据，分析发现电池储能已成为英国电力价格形成的重要灵活资源，逐步取代传统化石能源，其边际贡献随容量增长而提升，但在高价时段占比仍不足。
AI中文摘要：
可再生能源如今主导英国的发电结构，但很少占据边际定价位置，这引发了一个问题：哪些灵活技术能将富含可再生能源的系统转化为实时价格形成。本研究重建了2023年至2025年间50684个半小时结算期内英国平衡机制中符合条件的投标或报价堆栈的价格排名边缘，并将其归因于各个平衡机制机组，区分了长系统投标活跃和短系统报价活跃的条件，保留了共边际关联。电池在投标活跃边际中的占比从0.8%升至36.2%，在报价活跃边际中的占比从3.2%升至26.9%，在投标侧取代了联合循环燃气，在报价侧取代了抽水蓄能。容量标准化的边际捕获在两侧均有所上升，机组季度固定效应显示，平衡机制活跃容量每增加100兆瓦，季度投标侧和报价侧边际份额分别增加0.55和0.48个百分点。到2025年，电池的行动比从同一阶梯中选取的、与电量匹配的非电池替代方案更有利，幅度约为9至10英镑/兆瓦时，但电池在价格最高的5%的短系统期中的占比仍低12.9个百分点。单个电池仍符合价格接受者的特征，而电池群已成为常规平衡价格形成的内生因素。
英文摘要：
Renewables now dominate Great Britain's generation mix but rarely occupy the marginal price-setting position, which raises the question of which flexible technologies translate a renewable-rich system into real-time price formation. This study reconstructs the price-ranked edge of the eligible bid or offer stack in the GB Balancing Mechanism across 50,684 half-hourly Settlement Periods from 2023 to 2025 and attributes it to individual Balancing Mechanism Units, separating long-system bid-active from short-system offer-active conditions and retaining co-marginal ties. Batteries rose from 0.8% to 36.2% of bid-active and from 3.2% to 26.9% of offer-active marginality, displacing combined-cycle gas on the bid side and pumped storage on the offer side. Capacity-normalised marginal capture rose on both sides, and unit-quarter fixed effects show that an additional 100 MW of Balancing Mechanism active capacity was associated with a 0.55 and 0.48 percentage-point increase in quarterly bid- and offer-side marginal share. By 2025, battery actions were around £9 to 10/MWh more favourable than volume-matched non-battery alternatives drawn from the same ladder, yet batteries were under-represented by 12.9 percentage points in the highest-priced 5% of short-system periods. Individual batteries remain consistent with price-taking, while the fleet has become endogenous to routine balancing price formation.
