北欧电力系统开放可复现的投标区级碳排放强度
Open, Reproducible Per-Bidding-Zone Carbon Intensity for Nordic Power Systems
- EcoDeco AS（EcoDeco公司）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。
AI总结：
本研究提出开放可复现的北欧电力系统投标区级碳排放强度计算方法，发现现有统一占位因子不准确，其结果已贡献至codecarbon库，为北欧电网碳核算提供必要的投标区级数据支持。
AI中文摘要：
电力负荷的碳感知调度依赖于准确的电网碳排放强度（CI）信号，但现有工具通常采用统一的占位排放因子，无法反映区域差异。本研究提出一种开放、可复现的方法，用于计算北欧电力系统各投标区的CI。该方法将ENTSO-E的分类型发电数据与IPCC AR5生命周期排放因子结合，按投标区进行时长加权，并对缺失数据设置明确的重要性阈值。将该方法应用于2025年的9个投标区（NO1-NO5、SE1-SE4），得到的CI值范围为14.5至39.6 gCO2eq/kWh。结果显示，统一的18.0 gCO2eq/kWh占位因子在两个方向上均不准确：它低估了大多数区域的CI，NO4区的低估幅度约为2.2倍；但高估了以核电为主的SE3区的CI，其基于发电的CI是9个区域中最低的。研究还针对同比变化的预注册阈值15%对漂移特征进行分析，包括SE4区的临界情况和NO4区的事件驱动变化。预测实验表明，在挪威或瑞典的投标区，简单基线足够的原假设均未被拒绝。完整方法、数据和结果以开放许可发布，并存档于DOI https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21042581，各投标区的数值已上游贡献至codecarbon库。对于北欧电网的准确碳核算而言，投标区级别的分辨率是必要的，因为国家级平均数据会掩盖显著的国内区域差异。
英文摘要：
Carbon-aware scheduling of electrical loads depends on accurate grid carbon-intensity (CI) signals, yet existing tools commonly apply a uniform placeholder emission factor that misrepresents regional variation. This work presents an open, reproducible method for computing per-bidding-zone CI across the Nordic power system. Generation-by-type data from ENTSO-E is combined with IPCC AR5 life-cycle emission factors, duration-weighted per bidding zone, with an explicit materiality threshold for missing data. Applied to nine bidding zones (NO1-NO5, SE1-SE4) for 2025, the method yields CI values ranging from 14.5 to 39.6 gCO2eq/kWh. The results reveal that the uniform 18.0 gCO2eq/kWh placeholder is wrong in both directions: it understates CI for most zones, by a factor of approximately 2.2 for NO4, yet overstates CI for the nuclear-dominated zone SE3, whose production-based CI is the lowest of the nine. Drift is characterised against a pre-registered threshold of 15% year-on-year change, including a borderline case in SE4 and event-driven variation in NO4. Forecasting experiments do not reject the null hypothesis that simple baselines suffice, in either the Norwegian or Swedish zones. The full method, data, and results are released under open licences and archived at DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21042581, with the per-zone values contributed upstream to the codecarbon library. Per-bidding-zone resolution is necessary for accurate carbon accounting in Nordic grids, where country-level averages obscure substantial intra-country variation.
