大气真的是如此理想的“ blanket（保温层）”吗？

中文摘要 AI 辅助

当前处理和平均地球表面温度的方法存在不当应用，这导致了不同科学领域（尤其是气候变化与全球变暖研究）出现矛盾和误解。作者此前提出的方法解决了这些缺陷，并提供了一个基于物理的框架用于进一步分析。本文基于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）制作的ERA5再分析数据集展开分析，该数据集采用1950-2025年每小时的地表温度数据，覆盖代表地球表面的约104万个网格单元。研究表明，大气在决定地球表面增暖中的贡献可能被大幅高估，其估计效应与传统解释相差约10摄氏度。所提方法可对全球变暖进行绝对评估，确认长期增暖趋势，并与传统方法的结果进行比较分析。

英文摘要

The incorrect application of the current methodology for treating and averaging Earth's surface temperatures has contributed to contradictions and misinterpretations in different scientific disciplines, particularly in climate change and global warming research. The methodology previously proposed by the author addresses these shortcomings and provides a physically based framework for further analysis. This paper demonstrates that the contribution attributed to the atmosphere in determining the warming of the Earth's surface may be substantially overestimated, with the estimated effect differing by approximately 10 degrees Celsius from the conventional interpretation. The analysis is based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), using hourly skin temperature data for 1950-2025 on a global grid of approximately 1.04 million cells representing the Earth's surface. The proposed method enables an absolute assessment of global warming, confirms the long-term warming trend, and provides a comparative analysis with results obtained using the conventional methodology.

发表机构

• University of Montenegro（黑山大学）

机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。