发表机构
University of Science and Technology of China; University of Hong Kong; Shanghai Jiao Tong University（中国科学技术大学; 香港大学; 上海交通大学）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
FORESIGHT-9是含9条反事实压力世界线的前瞻性基准，用于评估自适应交易智能体，实验显示其能揭示终端收益未暴露的智能体失败，且等权策略表现优异。
AI 中文摘要
回顾式回测对自适应交易智能体的测试存在局限：无法排除历史污染，无法暴露对单一已实现市场路径的敏感性，也无法揭示长期适应过程中的内部退化。我们引入FORESIGHT-9，这是一个基于2026年7月共同信息边界分支出的9条可审计反事实压力世界线构建的前瞻性、过程感知基准。每条世界线规定了分阶段的宏观金融事件和联合多资产锚点；确定性生成器生成轨迹，观测结果按世界内时间披露。通用合约标准化了观测与执行，同时保留了每个智能体的原生适应循环。我们评估了两个自适应交易智能体框架搭配两个基础模型主干，开展了36次长期运行实验。智能体排名在不同世界线和主干间差异显著，固定等权策略在36次运行中的31次表现优于其他智能体。过程遥测数据揭示了终端收益未暴露的失败：在一次高收益运行中，实时因子库崩溃，而执行持仓收敛至等权 fallback，尽管决策记录仍持续报告活跃因子集合。因此，FORESIGHT-9不仅评估投资组合结果，还评估自适应智能体的状态与执行在替代未来间是否保持一致。我们发布这些世界线、轨迹、审计痕迹及再生脚本。
英文摘要
Retrospective backtests provide a limited test of adaptive trading agents: they cannot rule out historical contamination, expose sensitivity to a single realized market path, or reveal internal degeneration during long-horizon adaptation. We introduce FORESIGHT-9, a prospective and process-aware benchmark built from nine auditable counterfactual stress worldlines branching from a common July 2026 information boundary. Each worldline specifies staged macro-financial events and joint multi-asset anchors; a deterministic generator realizes the trajectories, while observations are disclosed according to in-world time. A common contract standardizes observations and execution while preserving each agent's native adaptation loop. We evaluate two adaptive trading-agent frameworks with two foundation-model backbones across 36 long-horizon runs. Agent rankings vary substantially across worldlines and backbones, and a fixed equal-weight policy outperforms 31 of 36 runs. Process telemetry exposes failures that terminal returns conceal: in one high-return run, the live factor library collapsed while executed holdings converged to the equal-weight fallback, even though decision records continued to report an active factor ensemble. FORESIGHT-9 therefore evaluates not only portfolio outcomes, but whether adaptive agent state and execution remain coherent across alternative futures. We release the worldlines, trajectories, audit traces, and regeneration scripts.
