AI 中文总结
针对人类世发展引发的奇点危机，本文提出“拯救2050”行星级集体预测系统，通过汇聚人类与AI的判断生成可检视的未来，论证其可行性、关键技术、风险及路线图，助力人类认知未来。
AI 中文摘要
人类世发展模式正将文明推向“奇点危机”：人工智能（AI）正快速接近通用人工智能（AGI），失控风险不断升级；同时无约束的经济增长导致熵产生呈超指数增长，推动地球系统逼近临界点。本文提出“拯救2050”倡议：这是一个分布式行星级集体预测系统，通过开放注册、众包和激励机制汇聚人类与AI对未来的判断，再通过大规模模拟将其整合为可检视的“预测世界”，使人类首次能系统地“看见”未来。我们从四个维度论证该倡议的可行性：AI预测的成熟度、人类集体智能与制度环境、相关领域的支撑进展、社会需求。随后确定三项关键使能技术：长时程自动解析、基于模拟的预测聚合、反身性治理。我们分析了潜在风险——包括反身性、认知单一化、叙事俘获，以及监管和伦理问题，并提出缓解策略，还规划了包含开放问题的分阶段路线图。该倡议的核心目标并非干预未来，而是让未来变得可见、可讨论、可共同书写。
英文摘要
The Anthropocene mode of development is driving civilization toward a "singularity crisis": artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly approaching general intelligence (AGI) with escalating risks of losing control, while unrestrained economic growth generates super-exponential growth of entropy production that pushes the Earth system toward its tipping points. This paper proposes the "Save 2050" initiative: a distributed planetary-scale collective prediction system that aggregates judgments about the future from humans and AI through open registration, crowdsourcing, and incentive mechanisms, and integrates them via large-scale simulation into inspectable "predicted worlds," enabling humanity to systematically \emph{see} the future for the first time. We argue for the initiative's feasibility along four dimensions---the maturation of AI forecasting, human collective intelligence and the institutional environment, supporting progress in related fields, and societal demand. We then identify three key enabling technologies: long-horizon automated resolution, simulation-based prediction aggregation, and reflexivity governance. We analyze potential risks---including reflexivity, cognitive monoculture, narrative capture, and regulatory and ethical concerns---together with mitigation strategies, and we outline a phased roadmap with open problems. The initiative's primary goal is not to intervene in the future, but to make the future visible, discussable, and co-writable.
Comments15 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables
