精英目的地的竞争：韩国的教育竞争与低生育率
The Race for Elite Destinations: Education Competition and Low Fertility in Korea
AI总结：
本文以韩国低生育率与激烈教育竞争的关联为研究问题，构建定量模型发现将分数录取改为抽签可提升生育率，生育转移支付有一定效果，且生育率下降源于偏好转变而非竞争加剧。
AI中文摘要：
韩国拥有全球最低的生育率，同时存在激烈的教育竞争。家庭将其一生收入的9%投入教育，其中大部分用于几乎没有可衡量回报的私人补习。本文指出，对令人向往的职业的竞争会产生一种配置外部性：当所有家庭增加教育支出时，录取门槛会上升，养育孩子的成本也会增加。在根据这一机制校准的定量模型中，将基于分数的录取方式替换为保持容量的抽签方式，可使每对夫妇的完成生育率提高0.24个孩子。生育转移支付能实现这一增幅的八分之一，教育税几乎无法实现任何增幅。各队列之间的生育率下降是偏好转变导致的，而非竞争加剧所致。
英文摘要：
South Korea has the world's lowest fertility and an intense education race. Families devote nine percent of lifetime income to education, mostly to private tutoring with near-zero measured returns. I show that competition for coveted careers generates an assignment externality: when all families spend more, the admission bar rises and children become costly. In a quantitative model calibrated to this mechanism, replacing score-based assignment with a capacity-preserving lottery raises completed fertility by 0.24 children per couple. Pronatal transfers deliver one eighth of that increase. Education taxes deliver almost none. Preference shifts, not a fiercer race, explain the decline across cohorts.
