采用间断有限元浅水方程求解器研究飓风引发的复合洪水预报能力
Investigating Forecast Proficiency of Hurricane-Induced Compound Flooding With a Discontinuous Galerkin Shallow Water Equation Solver
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究以飓风贝丽尔为案例，采用间断有限元浅水方程求解器构建复合洪水模型，利用NOAA的预报数据验证其效能，发现该模型可提升洪水预报精度，多数高水位标记的相对误差低于10%。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
美国墨西哥湾沿岸近期的强风暴凸显了复合洪水带来的挑战，例如降雨径流与风暴增水之间的相互作用。以往许多研究忽略了这些非线性相互作用，而本研究提出采用间断有限元浅水方程求解器，该求解器可将降雨输入直接纳入有限元网格。本研究以2024年飓风贝丽尔（Hurricane Beryl）为案例，分析参数化降雨在预报场景中的应用。贝丽尔因降雨和墨西哥湾沿岸的风暴增水引发了大范围洪水。本研究利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的一系列短期预报以及最佳路径数据，验证参数化降雨模型的预报效能。结果表明，参数化降雨输入使淹没模拟精度大幅提升，在强降雨且风暴增水较低的区域受影响最显著，多处区域峰值较基准增水模型高出50厘米以上。标准模型几乎未捕捉到贝丽尔的任何可用高水位标记，而复合洪水模型捕捉到了其中的大部分，且多数的相对误差低于10%。采用降雨强迫的预报模拟结果与最佳路径后报模拟结果更为接近，即便早期预报对风暴路径的预测准确度较低。随着贝丽尔逼近得克萨斯州海岸，预报模拟的精度进一步提升，在第38号预报（登陆前数小时）中，采样峰值高程最接近最佳路径结果。
英文摘要
Recent severe storms on the U.S. Gulf coast have demonstrated the challenges presented by compound flooding, such as the interactions between rainfall runoff and storm surge. Historically, many studies have neglected these nonlinear interactions, but we propose to use a discontinuous Galerkin shallow water equation solver, which allows for incorporation of rainfall inputs directly onto the finite element mesh. In this work, we analyze the use of parametric rainfall for forecasting scenarios, using Hurricane Beryl (2024) as a case study. Beryl led to extensive flooding due to rainfall and storm surge along the Gulf. We use a collection of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's short-term advisories along with the best track data to demonstrate the efficacy of the parametric rainfall model for forecasting. Results show that the parametric rainfall input allowed for much more accurate inundation. Areas with heavy rainfall and low surge were affected the most, with many areas peaking over 50 cm above the baseline surge model. Almost none of the available high water marks from Beryl were captured by the standard models, but the compound flooding models capture many of them, the majority of which show relative errors under 10 percent. Results from the advisory forecast simulations were shown to be much closer to the best track hindcast simulation when rainfall forcing was used, even while early forecasts predicted the storm's trajectory much less accurately. The advisory simulations improved even further as Beryl neared the Texas coast, with sampled peak elevations most closely approximating the best track at Advisory 38, a few hours before landfall.
