发表机构
Trinity College Dublin; CDM Smith（都柏林三一学院; CDM史密斯）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
该研究针对美国按已记录铅含量分配铅管更换资金的规则，发现其会惩罚发现未知铅管的行为，推导锚定审计的策略防卫估计量以修正规则，可大幅降低拨款波动且保留对脆弱系统的倾斜。
AI 中文摘要
美国正按已记录的铅含量分配150亿美元用于铅服务管线更换，这是环境指标转移支付中规模最大的项目之一。我们精确重构该规则后发现，其对“低于零”的情况定价。在可测量的8个司法管辖区中，有3个司法管辖区的未知管线会降低州的预期拨款（高于法定下限），且无任何司法管辖区会因此增加拨款；低于法定下限时，拨款无法变动，未提交任何报告的系统被计为无铅。我们证明，基于自报清单的任何固定公式都无法在为需求付费的同时不惩罚测量行为，推导得出唯一的加性修复方案——一种锚定审计的策略防卫估计量，并利用该项目的数据进行校准。发现行为的年度中位数损失从每条管线48.63美元降至0；拨款波动从资金池的16.5%降至0.8%，审计成本为一年资金的1.36%，同时公式对脆弱系统的倾斜仍得以保留。
英文摘要
The United States allots USD 15 billion for lead service line replacement in proportion to documented lead, the largest of a growing class of environmental-indicator transfers. Reconstructed exactly, the rule prices looking below zero. Resolving an unknown pipe lowers a state's expected allotment in three of the eight jurisdictions we can measure above the statutory floor, and raises it in none. Below it the allotment cannot move. Systems filing nothing are scored lead-free. We prove no fixed formula on self-reported inventories can pay for need without punishing its measurement, so we made an audited one. The unique additive repair credits unknowns at a rate no filing can move, and is strategy-proof. Discovery is repriced from a median loss of USD 48.63 per line per year to zero. Allocation swings fall from 16.5% of the pool to 0.8%, for an audit costing 1.23% of annual funds. The formula's tilt toward vulnerable systems survives.
Comments23 pages, 5 figures, 1 table. Supplementary information (34 pages). v2 corrects two v1 errors: the abstract gave the audit cost as 1.36% where the body gave 1.23% (the body is right), and the supplement's allocator equation summed allotments to a price per line, not to the pool. Audit design also revised; point estimates unchanged. Data/code: doi:10.5281/zenodo.22552146
