兆瓦级轨道数据中心的运行、维护与工业规模化
Operations, Maintenance, and Industrial Scaling of MW-Class Orbital Data Centers
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文构建兆瓦级轨道数据中心的生命周期框架，分析其运维需求、物流规模、异常概率等，表明计划更新操作多于随机更换，首次部署为无人模式且兼容后续人类访问。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
兆瓦级轨道数据中心除了航天器的电源/热控系统外，还需要持续的维护、部件更换、库存管理及服务能力。本文针对永久/瞬态故障、模块化轨道更换单元（ORU）、机器人服务、备件库存、计划技术更新、关联故障、网络安全、可选人类支持等场景，构建了一个分析性生命周期框架。该模型结合了非均匀组件危险度、容量加权可用性、多类机器人服务容量、泊松基础库存、更换流核算、人类支持盈亏平衡关系等要素。对于一个拥有10个100kW活跃节点、1个备用节点、约200个5kW计算模块的1兆瓦集群，低、标称、高部署质量分配范围为约50-75千克/千瓦。假设条件下，每年每兆瓦会产生70.2次随机或寿命受限干预，以及323-349次计划更新操作，总计393-419次标准化操作/（兆瓦·年）。分析得出第一代物流需求为5.3-9.0吨/（兆瓦·年），标称情况约为6.6吨/（兆瓦·年），机器人有效工时为560-700小时/（兆瓦·年）。在给定的组件数量、危险度及3-15年间隔下，计划更新操作超过随机更换操作。在约400次标准化操作/（兆瓦·年）时，内部恢复后的异常概率小于10^-3，大规模场景下目标接近10^-4；终端无法恢复概率p_U需要更小的任务级分配。100kW节点的目标灾难性损失危险度为0.01-0.03次/年。参数化工作负载和成本案例显示，应急访问需求为数十兆瓦，周期性任务为10-100兆瓦级，专用人员需求为数百兆瓦至吉瓦级。参考首次部署为无人模式，具备自主故障管理、机器人维护能力，基于6个月补给周期的特定库存支持，兼容后续人类访问且无需永久居住。
英文摘要
Megawatt-class orbital data centers require continuous maintenance, replacement, inventory, and service capacity in addition to spacecraft power/thermal systems. We formulate an analytical lifecycle framework for permanent/transient failures, modular orbital replacement units, robotic servicing, spare inventory, scheduled technology refresh, correlated faults, cybersecurity, optional human support. The model combines nonhomogeneous component hazards, capacity-weighted availability, multiclass robotic-service capacity, Poisson base-stock inventory, replacement-flow accounting, human-support break-even relations. For a 1 MW cluster with 10 active 100 kW nodes, 1 reserve node, ~200 5 kW compute cartridges, low, nominal, high deployed-mass allocations span ~50-75 kg/kW. Assumptions yield 70.2 random or life-limited interventions and 323-349 planned refresh operations/(MW-year), for a total of 393-419 standardized operations/(MW-year). Analysis gives a first-generation logistics of 5.3-9.0 t/(MW-year), with a nominal case of ~ 6.6 t/(MW year), 560-700 productive robot-hors/(MW-year). Planned refresh exceeds random replacement under the stated component populations, hazards, 3-15-year intervals. At ~400 standardized operations/(MW-year), the post-internal-recovery exception probability is <$10^{-3}$, with an objective near $10^{-4}$ at large scale; terminal non-recovery $p_U$ requires a smaller mission-level allocation. The target catastrophic-loss hazard for a 100 kW node is 0.01-0.03 1/yr. Parametric workload and cost cases place contingency visits at 10s of MWs, periodic campaigns at 10-100s of MWs, dedicated personnel at several 100 MWs to GWs. The reference first deployment is uncrewed, autonomously fault-managed, robotically maintainable, supported by specific inventory based on a 6-month replenishment horizon, compatible with later human access without permanent habitation.
