协同优化发电、输电与储能扩建：系统价值及抽水蓄能的最优时长
Co-Optimized Generation, Transmission, and Storage Expansion: System Value and Optimal Duration of Pumped-Storage Hydropower
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文提出发电-输电-储能扩建框架，将抽水蓄能（PSH）与电池储能系统（BESS）对比，发现PSH可显著降低巴西互联系统的成本、弃电率及燃气装机需求，核心机制具普适性。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
扩建规划模型通常在优化前固定储能时长，仅确定要建设的储能功率，却不明确其可放电时长。本文提出一种发电-输电-储能扩建框架，其中多种时长的候选储能项目按年化成本竞争，使时长组合成为优化结果。该框架为滚动时域两阶段随机线性规划，每个五年阶段对应一个以小时分辨率计算的完整年度，涵盖10组一致的来水、风电及太阳能场景。将其应用于2030-2050年的巴西互联系统，该系统需求将大致翻倍至每年1716太瓦时，可变可再生能源（VRE）将提供大部分新增装机。对比两种场景：场景一为4个子系统的36个抽水蓄能（PSH）候选项目，涵盖9种时长（4-144小时），同时搭配4小时时长的电池储能系统（BESS）；场景二仅采用BESS。当PSH可用时，模型将建设31.2吉瓦/755吉瓦时的PSH，无需建设BESS，其中12小时时长的容量占主导，含4.9吉瓦的72小时单元；当无PSH时，模型将建设38吉瓦/152吉瓦时的BESS，并新增7.8吉瓦的燃气装机，多为开式循环调峰机组。PSH可使2050年系统年化成本降低50亿美元/年（降幅6.8%），运营成本降低23.5%，火力发电量减少34太瓦时/年，长期边际成本降低20%；2035年VRE弃电率从8.4%降至3.2%。该结果的具体数值与巴西情况相关，但核心机制具有普适性：将储能候选项目限定为单一时长会低估系统的最优储能需求，高估其对火电机组的剩余需求。
英文摘要
Expansion planning models usually fix storage duration before optimization, setting how much storage power to build but not for how long it can discharge. We present a generation-transmission-storage expansion framework in which candidates of many durations compete on annualized cost, making the duration mix an optimization outcome. It is a rolling-horizon, two-stage stochastic linear program, each five-year stage is a full year at hourly resolution under ten coherent inflow, wind, and solar scenarios. We apply it to the Brazilian Interconnected System over 2030-2050, where demand roughly doubles to 1,716 TWh/year and variable renewable energy (VRE) supplies most new capacity. Two cases are compared: 36 pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) candidates over four subsystems and nine durations (4-144 h) alongside 4-h battery energy storage systems (BESS), and BESS alone. With PSH available, the model builds 31.2 GW / 755 GWh of PSH and no BESS, dominated by 12-h capacity with 4.9 GW of 72-h units. Without PSH it builds 38 GW / 152 GWh of BESS and 7.8 GW more gas-fired capacity, mostly open-cycle peakers. PSH lowers 2050 annualized system cost by US$ 5.0 billion/year (6.8%), operating cost by 23.5%, thermal generation by 34 TWh/year, and long-run marginal cost by 20%; 2035 VRE curtailment falls from 8.4% to 3.2%. The magnitudes are specific to Brazil, but the underlying mechanism is general: limiting storage candidates to a single duration understates the system's optimal energy-storage requirement and overstates its residual need for thermal capacity.
