反向大推动：生成式AI与自实现自动化
The Reverse Big Push: Generative AI and Self-Fulfilling Automation
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本文研究生成式AI重新分配自动化固定成本的不对称性，构建模型揭示人力增强型与自动化生产模式的战略互补性及多重均衡，结合政策分析为协调均衡提供理论支撑。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
生成式AI重新分配了自动化的固定成本：模型提供商支付费用训练前沿系统，下游企业按使用量租用该能力；而同一企业必须持续承担工资支出以提供人力增强型服务。我们在包含家庭预算和市场出清工资的本地服务经济中研究这种不对称性。人力增强型服务从额外客户处获得更大剩余，而自动化的盈亏平衡规模更低。工资支出支撑跨部门需求，工资调整会抵消这种反馈但通常无法完全消除：当工资收入效应超过留用工人的人均工资支出下降时，生产模式呈战略互补性，经济可同时存在高需求的人力增强型均衡和低需求的自动化均衡，前者是本地最优，即便弹性工资阻碍企业利润排名。在具有前瞻性企业和交错调整机会的情况下，相同的初始就业结构可支撑自动化 cascade 或增强型复苏，后续采用者的预期路径会验证先行者的选择。根据Frankel和Pauzner的正则性与边界条件，公共总冲击会选择唯一的状态或有路径，而摩擦消失的极限则按风险主导性选择。基于专业服务收入工资比的透明参数化，说明高自主性用途如何进入协调区域，以及工资调整如何压缩该区域。最优政策结合需求溢出产生的采用楔子，以及当低状态局部自维持时的临时过渡措施。
英文摘要
Generative AI relocates the fixed cost of automation. A model provider pays to train a frontier system, while a downstream firm rents capability by usage; the same firm must carry a continuing payroll to supply a human-augmented service. We study this asymmetry in a local service economy with household budgets and a market-clearing wage. Human augmentation earns a larger surplus from an additional customer, whereas automation has the lower break-even scale. Payroll supports demand across sectors. Wage adjustment works against this feedback but does not generally undo it: when the wage-income effect dominates the fall in the wage bill per retained worker, production modes are strategic complements. The economy can then possess both a high-demand human-augmented equilibrium and a low-demand automated equilibrium. The former is the local first best, even when flexible wages prevent a firm-profit ranking. With forward-looking firms and staggered revision opportunities, the same inherited employment structure can support an automation cascade or an augmentation recovery; the anticipated path of later adopters validates the first movers' choices. Under the regularity and boundary conditions of Frankel and Pauzner, a public aggregate shock selects a unique state-contingent path, while the vanishing-friction limit selects according to risk dominance. A transparent parameterization anchored to professional-services revenue-to-payroll ratios illustrates how high-autonomy uses can enter the coordination region and how wage adjustment compresses that region. Optimal policy combines the adoption wedge created by demand spillovers with a temporary bridge when the low state is locally self-sustaining.
