AI 中文总结
该研究构建了校准的狮子座流星群尘埃尾模型，修正误差后预测2031-2035年狮子座流星群的ZHR，2034年有两个极大值，相关结果可用于检验尘埃尾密度项。
AI 中文摘要
我们将N体尘埃尾生成与快速节点相遇预测相结合，将该模型应用于狮子座流星群2031-2035年的回归事件。主要误差并非来自抛射物理或相遇机制，而是源于抛射时刻的母体轨道：对55P/坦普尔-塔特尔彗星的回溯积分显示，1700年之前的抛射点与拟合的视位置解相距超过1天文单位。因此，我们将抛射点而非尘埃锚定到JPL Horizons星历表。锚定操作消除了模型节点中与年龄成比例的偏差，且该模型首次成功复现了2001和2002年流星暴归因于1767年尘埃尾的经典结论，峰值时间精度分别达到1分钟和40分钟。第二个系统误差并非母体属性：从存储数据集读取的预测会将每个节点固定在快照时刻的位置，而真实节点在0.12次公转中平均移动1.2×10⁻²天文单位。同一尘埃尾的两个冻结快照差异也达到此量级，因此每年需使用自身的历元匹配数据集。完整性核查（涵盖模型预测的所有相遇，而非仅指定相遇）显示，模型对1932年尘埃尾的预测过度了18倍。我们预测2034年11月18日有两个相当的极大值：来自1932年尘埃尾的天顶每小时流量（ZHR）约1.4×10³，对应世界时03:30；来自1733年尘埃尾的ZHR约1.2×10³，对应世界时23:45；2033年ZHR约1.4×10³，2035年约650。哪个尘埃尾主导将是对尘埃尾密度项的直接观测检验。
英文摘要
We combine N-body dust-trail generation with a fast nodal-encounter forecast and apply the model to the Leonid returns of 2031-2035. The dominant error is neither the ejection physics nor the encounter machinery but the parent trajectory at the moment of ejection: a back-integration of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle places the pre-1700 ejection sites more than 1 au from the fitted apparition solutions. We therefore anchor the ejection sites, not the dust, to the JPL Horizons ephemeris. Anchoring removes an age-proportional bias in the modelled nodes and, for the first time in this model, reproduces the classical attribution of the 2001 and 2002 storms to the 1767 trail, with peak times accurate to 1 and 40 min. A second systematic is not a property of the parent: a forecast read from a stored dataset holds each node where the snapshot left it, while the real node moves a median 1.2e-2 au in 0.12 revolutions. Two frozen snapshots of the same trail disagree by as much, so each year uses its own epoch-matched dataset. A completeness audit -- every encounter the model predicts, not only the nominated ones -- over-predicts the 1932 trail eighteenfold. We predict two comparable maxima on 2034 November 18, zenithal hourly rate ~1.4e3 at 03:30 UT from the 1932 trail and ~1.2e3 at 23:45 UT from the 1733 trail, with ~1.4e3 in 2033 and ~650 in 2035. Which dominates is a direct observational test of the trail-density term.
Comments59 pages, 11 figures, 6 tables. Submitted to Icarus
