AI 中文总结
本研究以荷兰选举数据为基础，采用新型接触移民程度指标，发现接触移民程度与反移民情绪呈负相关，但存在“过度接触效应”，高接触程度下财富及不平等会影响投票动态。
AI 中文摘要
本研究以荷兰右翼选票作为反移民情绪的代理指标，探究接触移民程度与反移民情绪的关系。接触移民程度采用一种源自居住隔离文献的新型指标衡量，该指标应用于荷兰全国汇总层面的网格数据。借助选举结果这一代理指标，本研究可覆盖全体投票人口，而非局限于有限的面板受访者子集。在针对2023年全国选举的横截面研究中，研究发现，接触移民程度更高的市镇与社区，反移民情绪更低；但从2021年至2023年全国选举的右翼选票份额增幅来看，存在“过度接触效应”，即二者关系反转，移民数量显著增加的地区随后出现右翼选票增长。此外，在高接触移民程度的情况下，财富（及不平等）在投票动态中发挥重要作用，表明相对剥夺理论可能产生影响。
英文摘要
We study the relationship between exposure to immigrants and right-wing votes used as a proxy for anti-immigrant sentiment in the Netherlands. Exposure to immigrants is measured using a novel indicator, adapted from the residential segregation literature, applied to grid data available for the entire country at the aggregate level. Using the proxy of election results, we are able to study the entire voting population instead of a limited subset of panel respondents. In our cross-sectional study of the 2023 national election, we find that municipalities and neighbourhoods with greater exposure have less anti-immigrant sentiment. However, looking at the increase in right-wing vote share from the 2021 to the 2023 national elections, we find evidence of an ``overexposure effect'', as this relationship reverses, and the areas that saw significant increases in migrants subsequently experienced an increase in right-wing votes. Furthermore, we see that at high levels of exposure, wealth (and inequality) plays an important role in the voting dynamics, indicating that relative deprivation theory may play a role.
Comments30 pages (incl. Appendix), 8 Figures (main text)
