AI 中文总结
本研究开发搜寻-筛选式职业搜寻方法，基于随机效用模型与Cox风险模型，经离散选择模拟分析发现，自然灾害风险对职业选择的影响随决策轮次变化，凸显职业选择多阶段建模的重要性。
AI 中文摘要
自然灾害是一种非市场的不利设施，会影响个人的就业搜寻，产生负面环境影响并造成经济效率低下。我们开发了一种搜寻-筛选式职业搜寻方法，采用离散选择模拟来研究薪资、犯罪和自然灾害风险如何影响职业选择。我们基于随机效用模型（Random Utility Model），使用Cox风险模型将职业决策过程建模为一系列淘汰事件。我们利用离散选择模拟的数据，同时估计标准比例风险模型和扩展设定，该设定允许自然灾害风险的影响在决策轮次间发生变化。在模拟职业搜寻的动态过程中，个体在基于收入、地理位置、犯罪水平和自然灾害属性的自适应学习过程中，对成对的工作机会做出决策。职业选择决策的结果为统计生存分析提供输入。结果表明，薪资和犯罪对职业淘汰具有稳定且符合经济直觉的影响：更高的薪资会降低淘汰概率，更高的犯罪会提高淘汰概率。相比之下，自然灾害风险表现出时变效应：在决策的早期轮次会提高淘汰概率，但在后期阶段则变为中性或有利。这些发现表明，随着个体从初始筛选过渡到最终职业选择，对环境风险的评估方式存在差异，凸显了将职业选择建模为多阶段过程的重要性。
英文摘要
Natural hazards are a nonmarket disamenity that affects an individual's search for employment resulting in a negative environmental impact that produces an economic inefficiency. We develop a seek-and-screen job search approach that uses a discrete choice simulation to examine how salary, crime, and natural hazard risk influence job choice. We model the job decision process as a series of elimination events using a Cox hazard model grounded in a Random Utility Model. We use data from the discrete choice simulation to estimate both a standard proportional hazards model and an extended specification that allows the effect of natural hazard risk to vary across decision rounds. Individuals are exposed to the dynamics of a simulated job search as they make decisions between pairs of job offers in an adaptive learning process based on income, geography, crime level, and natural hazard attributes. The results of the job choice decisions provide the input to a statistical survival analysis. The results indicate that salary and crime exert stable and economically intuitive effects on job elimination, with higher salary reducing and higher crime increasing the likelihood of removal. In contrast, natural hazard risk exhibits a time-varying effect that increases the probability of elimination in early rounds but becomes neutral or favorable in later stages of the decision process. These findings suggest that environmental risk is evaluated differently as individuals transition from initial screening to final job selection, highlighting the importance of modeling job choice as a multi-stage process.
Comments50 pages, 6 figures
