AI 中文总结
该研究针对多流运行遥测异常检测问题，提出TRACE-C秩校准检测器，经英国电网数据验证，可有效识别风暴等异常事件，同时明确了方法的解释限制。
AI 中文摘要
运行遥测可能出现整体异常但每个单独流均处于其熟悉范围内的情况。TRACE-C是一种可审计的严格先验秩校准检测器，适用于对齐的多流遥测：同态滚动中位数/MAD残差输入三个窗口通道——最大归一化局部和、针对稳健z残差的高斯copula形式依赖对比，以及最差标准化AR(1)创新；这些通道的秩经Fisher聚合后与早期聚合结果进行比较。我们评估了6个英国电网流，使用2019年1月-4月数据拟合，2019年7月-12月数据作为开发证据，2020年数据为检查前冻结的保留集。TRACE-C在2019年测试窗口中将Atiyah风暴列为第一，但公开的通道消融实验表明该排名源于局部通道而非copula形式通道：仅copula通道将Atiyah排为第59位。8月9日的短时频率事件被融合检测器排为第143位，远低于单独时间通道的第40位，而重建基线将其排为第一。2020年无窗口被选中，这与记录规则饱和而非该年无事件一致；排名最高的冻结窗口后续被解释为Ellen风暴。整个研究存在三个解释限制：所得p值是选择量而非事件概率；copula形式通道并非字面copula密度，该方法不应用概率积分或正态得分变换；经验秩计数是诊断工具而非覆盖率或错误发现证明。本文所有图表均由提交的机器可读报告生成。
英文摘要
Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.
Comments9 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables. Code: https://github.com/mars-arch/trace-c . Data: doi:10.57967/hf/10063 . Preprint of record: doi:10.5281/zenodo.22012123
