AI 中文总结
本文针对集体机构成员选择隐蔽的问题，提出无需行为识别的动态测量方法，通过动态有序状态空间模型分析公共信号，在斯洛文尼亚内阁决策案例中验证了该方法的有效性。
AI 中文摘要
集体机构成员可能留下公共痕迹，但其个人选择仍处于隐蔽状态。本文将语料条件下的公共立场与关联该立场、参与情况及秘密选择的行为规则分离开来，采用动态有序状态空间模型测量前者，并针对后者建立似然排除结果：若行为关联参数仅进入完全未观测结果的分布，且先验独立于测量参数，则公共信号不会改变其后验，仍等于先验。因此，所声明的单调映射应被报告为敏感性包络，而非估计值或已识别的边界。针对内阁规模的模拟将动态测量与静态有序模型及透明摘要进行对比，揭示了时间池化的收益，以及在测量薄弱或维度遗漏时的失效情况。应用部分重构了斯洛文尼亚内阁一项隐蔽决策前的41条官方来源决策前记录，21名部长中仅有6名具有可归因信号，模型定位出一个小型可见群体，其余则受先验主导。事件依赖调整、编码扰动、滚动预测及后续披露的记录均支持同一结论：不确定性应跟踪公共信息环境，而非转化为无依据的行为精度。
英文摘要
Members of collective institutions may leave public traces while their individual choices remain concealed. This paper separates a corpus-conditional public position from the behavioral rule linking that position to participation and secret choice. I measure the first with a dynamic ordinal state-space model and establish a likelihood-exclusion result for the second. If behavioral-link parameters enter only the distribution of an entirely unobserved outcome and are a priori independent of measurement parameters, public signals leave their posterior equal to their prior. Declared monotone mappings are therefore reported as sensitivity envelopes, not estimates or identified bounds. Cabinet-sized simulations compare dynamic measurement with a static ordinal model and transparent summaries, exposing gains from temporal pooling and failures under weak measurement or omitted dimensionality. The application reconstructs 41 pre-decision official-source records preceding a concealed Slovenian cabinet decision. Only six of 21 ministers have attributable signals. The model locates a small visible group but leaves the remainder prior-dominated. Event-dependence adjustments, coding perturbations, rolling prediction, and the subsequently disclosed record support the same conclusion. Uncertainty should track the public information environment rather than be converted into unsupported behavioral precision.
