转移还是削减？数据中心灵活性的价值取决于其所在的主电网
Shift or curtail? How much data-center flexibility is worth depends on the host power grid
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究针对数据中心灵活性价值的影响因素，通过将负载分类并应用于两类电网的容量扩展模型，发现其价值因电网特性不同呈空间或时间差异，为电网基础设施规划提供了依据。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
数据中心的增长存在电网基础设施过度建设及资本搁浅的风险。灵活的数据中心运营可推迟基础设施投资，但其价值取决于灵活性机制和主电网特性。我们将数据中心负载分为刚性、灵活或可中断三类，并将其纳入容量扩展模型，应用于以市场为主导、化石能源占比高的PJM电网，以及有碳总量限制、中央协调的韩国电网。在PJM电网中，灵活性价值具有空间性：在各区域间转移工作负载可降低2028年系统成本6%、2038年降低19%，避免建设4.4吉瓦的燃气和核电装机。在韩国电网中，灵活性价值具有时间性：将负载转移至午间太阳能发电时段，可使2028年新增0.5吉瓦太阳能发电具备建设价值，2038年避免建设1.2吉瓦燃气和0.3吉瓦储能电池。在两个电网中，实际的事件形态限制均会降低削减的价值。研究结果表明，灵活性采购及其价值由电网特性和政策目标共同决定。
英文摘要
Data-center growth risks overbuilding power grid infrastructure and stranding capital. Flexible data-center operation can defer infrastructure investments, but its value depends on the flexibility mechanism and the host power grid characteristics. We classify data-center load as firm, flexible or interruptible, and embed them in capacity expansion applied to market-organized, fossil-heavy PJM and carbon-capped, centrally coordinated Korea. In PJM, the flexibility value is spatial: shifting workloads between zones reduces system cost by 6% in 2028 and 19% in 2038, avoiding 4.4 GW and 8.9 GW of gas and nuclear generation. In Korea, it is temporal: shifting load into midday solar hours makes 0.5 GW of additional solar worth building in 2028 and avoids 1.2 GW of gas and 0.3 GW of batteries in 2038. In both, realistic event-shape limits diminish the value of curtailment. The results show that flexibility procurement and its value are driven by grid characteristics and policy objectives.
