发表机构
Politecnico di Milano; CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment; NOVA School of Science and Technology; NOVA University Lisbon; CENSE—Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research; CHANGE—Global Change and Sustainability Institute（米兰理工大学; CMCC基金会-欧地中海气候变化中心; RFF-CMCC欧洲经济与环境研究所; NOVA科学技术学院; 里斯本NOVA大学; CENSE环境与可持续发展研究中心; CHANGE全球变化与可持续发展研究所）
机构由 AI 辅助整理，请以论文原文为准。AI 中文总结
本研究运用深度学习预测欧盟27国2030年碳排放，发现其排放量将超目标35%，电力部门减排达标但交通部门进展不足，呼吁加强干预与能源信息建设。
AI 中文摘要
欧盟承诺到2030年将温室气体排放量较1990年水平减少55%，但当前趋势是否与这一雄心相符仍不确定。我们将深度学习应用于截至2023年的欧盟27个成员国的高分辨率社会经济及部门数据，以预测当前趋势下的部门二氧化碳轨迹，该方法仅基于历史数据中已反映的情况外推观测到的部门动态，不假设政策环境的节奏或有效性发生变化。我们预测欧盟27国的排放量将超出2030年目标35%（存在6.2亿吨二氧化碳的缺口），仅少数国家的轨迹与欧盟承诺相符。尽管电力部门在可再生能源转型的推动下实现了与目标一致的减排，但交通部门进展甚微，到2030年其排放量将占总排放量的三分之一以上，这反映出成员国间的结构性惰性，而非地理集中的滞后。我们的研究结果表明，需要大量额外干预措施来缩小欧洲的雄心与实施之间的差距，并呼吁在欧洲建立最新的能源信息。
英文摘要
The European Union has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, but whether current trends are compatible with this ambition remains uncertain. We apply deep learning to high-resolution socioeconomic and sectoral data across EU27 member states till 2023 to project sectoral CO$_2$ trajectories under current trends, extrapolating observed sectoral momentum without assuming changes in the pace or effectiveness of the policy environment beyond what is already reflected in historical data. We project that EU27 emissions will exceed the 2030 target by 35% (620 Mt CO$_2$ shortfall), with only a small minority of countries on trajectories consistent with the bloc's commitments. While the Power sector achieves target-consistent reductions driven by the renewable transition, Mobility shows minimal progress and accounts for over a third of total emissions by 2030, reflecting a structural inertia across member states rather than geographically concentrated lag. Our findings indicate that substantial additional intervention is required to close Europe's ambition-implementation gap, and call for establishing up-to-date energy information in Europe.
Comments24 pages, 9 figures; Supplementary Material included
