代表性改革的统计评估：来自洛杉矶的案例研究
Statistical Assessments of Representational Reforms: A Case Study from Los Angeles
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中文总结 AI 辅助
本研究开发了整合多类分析的选举改革前瞻性评估统计框架，以洛杉矶拟议市议会改革为案例，发现取消低投票率初选并采用多成员选区可提升代表性公平，该框架可推广至美国其他司法管辖区。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
选举改革——包括选区边界调整、选举规则变更和当选机构规模调整——是美国州级及市政政治中反复出现的特征。此类改革的代表性影响在实施前难以评估，即使是善意的公民改革者也常因政治体系变更的意外后果感到意外。我们开发了一种用于选举改革前瞻性评估的统计框架，整合了多种分析模式：选民档案的描述性统计、种族与族裔的概率插补、生态推断以及集成 redistricting 模拟。这些工具共同为拟议改革如何影响政府中最终被倾听的群体提供统一评估。我们将该框架应用于洛杉矶市议会目前正在考虑的改革，包括增加单一成员选区数量、采用排序复选投票以及引入按比例排序复选投票选举的多成员选区。我们发现，仅扩大市议会规模不太可能显著改善代表性不足社区的代表性；相比之下，取消低投票率的初选并采用多成员选区，可带来更大的代表性公平性提升。我们的分析于2025年末通过公开证词提交给了洛杉矶宪章改革委员会。尽管以洛杉矶为研究背景，该框架可广泛适用于评估美国各司法管辖区的前瞻性选举改革。
英文摘要
Electoral reforms -- including changes to district boundaries, electoral rules, and the size of elected bodies -- are a recurrent feature of American state and municipal politics. The representational impact of such reforms is challenging to assess before they are implemented, and even well-intentioned civic reformers are often surprised by the unintended consequences of changes to the political system. We develop a statistical framework for the prospective evaluation of electoral reforms by integrating several modes of analysis: descriptive statistics of the voter file, probabilistic race and ethnicity imputation, ecological inference, and redistricting simulations via ensembles. Together, these tools provide a unified assessment of how proposed reforms affect whose voices are ultimately heard in government. We apply this framework to reforms currently being considered for the Los Angeles City Council, including increasing the number of single-member districts, adopting ranked-choice voting, and introducing multimember districts elected by proportional ranked choice voting. We find that expanding the Council alone is unlikely to substantially improve representation for underrepresented communities. In contrast, eliminating low-turnout primary elections and adopting multimember districts produce larger improvements in representational equity. Our analyses were shared with L.A.'s Charter Reform Commission via public testimony in late 2025. Although motivated by Los Angeles, the framework is broadly applicable to evaluating prospective electoral reforms across American jurisdictions.
