预测市场的可视化、投注与不确定性：对Reddit帖子和评论的研究
Prediction market visualizations, betting, and uncertainty: A study of Reddit Posts and Comments
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中文总结 AI 辅助
该研究通过分析Reddit社区r/Kalshi的相关帖子和评论，探究用户对预测市场可视化的解读方式，明确了用户推断不确定性的多种形式。
中文摘要 AI 辅助
预测市场平台通过可视化展示关于未来事件的合约，这些可视化内容呈现概率、价格、趋势、赔率及 payout（ payout 译为 payout 或 payout 信息）信息。尽管这些可视化常显得精确，但并不总是直接呈现不确定性，因此用户会从市场走势、可视化线索和上下文信息中推断不确定性。本文通过对Reddit社区r/Kalshi的帖子和评论进行定性分析，探究用户如何解读预测市场的可视化内容。从约12000篇帖子和96000条评论的初始语料库中，识别出360篇包含预测市场可视化的帖子，并对带标注的帖子及相关讨论进行主题分析。研究发现，用户通过多种解读形式推断不确定性：解读图表数值、对显示的概率信息存在困惑、引入外部知识、质疑可信度与流动性、批判可视化设计，以及将可视化信息与投注决策关联起来。
英文摘要
Prediction market platforms present contracts about future events through visualizations that show probabilities, prices, trends, odds, and payout information. Although these visualizations often appear precise, they do not always show uncertainty directly. As a result, users infer uncertainty from market movement, visualization cues, and contextual information. In this paper, we examine how users interpret prediction market visualizations through a qualitative analysis of posts and comments from the Reddit community r/Kalshi. From an initial corpus of approximately 12,000 posts and 96,000 comments, we identified 360 posts containing prediction market visualizations and conducted a thematic analysis of annotated posts and related discussions. Our findings show that users infer uncertainty through several forms of interpretation: they interpret chart values, struggle with probability information displayed, bring in external knowledge, question credibility and liquidity, critique visualization design, and connecting visualized information to betting decisions.
